BetIQ Daily: Rams vs. Cardinals MNF Pick and NCAA Basketball Pick
Picks for Monday include the Cardinals vs. Rams showdown for the NFC West, plus a review of BetIQ Daily performance.
December 13, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals look to take control of the NFC West (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)
Monday, December 13 (#17)
BetIQ Daily has a case of the Mondays, but that’s a good thing with a top NFL matchup taking place.
This post highlights a sample of picks available to subscribers, which also include college basketball, NBA, and all of the upcoming bowl games. And if you are playing in any college football bowl pools, our College Bowl Pool Picks are back and ramping up with bowls starting Friday.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
Picks for Monday and Tuesday
1) LA Rams/Arizona Under 51.5 – NFL Over/Under Pick
- Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Final playable over/under NFL pick for Week 14.
- Rams offense less dynamic without WR Robert Woods.
- Rams will also be without RB Darrell Henderson Jr., and could go more run-heavy with RB Sony Michel.
- Arizona has given up more than 24 points in only one of Kyler Murray’s starts (Week 2 vs. Minnesota)
2) Houston -23 (vs. Louisiana) – NCAAB Spread Pick
- Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Rated as greater than 52.0% cover odds by all three models: Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Power Rating.
- In last two seasons, Houston is 20-1 SU and 16-5 ATS when favored by at least 12 points.
- Houston is 4-1 ATS against non-power conference schools so far this year, winning four by at least 30 points.
- Houston plays high defensive pressure style and has deep rotation that can dominate mismatched schools.
BetIQ Daily Performance Update
We are three weeks in, so it’s a good time to take a step down and see how things are going so far with the picks highlighted in this article.
Here is a quick summary, broken down by bet types:
Spread, Over/Under, Player Props
In games where the vigorish is typically -110 or -115, we are 27-18 (60.0%) so far.
Moneyline Plays
We’ve highlighted 10 moneyline plays so far, and those have gone 5-5. But all 10 have been on underdogs at +dollar odds, so the moneyline picks are +2.9 units across those 10 games.
Same-Game Parlays (SGP)
We’ve sometimes suggested some Same-Game Parlays (SGPs) when we like a player prop and side/total in the same contest, usually adding in another related player prop. So far, of the five that have been suggested, three of them have hit (at the most common lines at time of publication).
It’s hard to evaluate the payouts because every book is different, and they often offer lots of alternative lines for SGPs. Typically, the SGPs we’ve suggested had payouts in the +280 to +400 range depending on which book we checked and which alternate lines closest to our suggested numbers were used.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 41-30-1 (58%, +7.3 units)
- College football over/under picks: 173-143-3 (55%, +14.3 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-8 (62%, +3.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
Got Feedback?
Thanks for reading this edition of BetIQ Daily!
We plan to try out some different things as we refine this column, and we’d love to hear your suggestions on what to include.
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