BetIQ Daily: SEC and American Tournament Winner Picks and Murray State NCAA Seed Pick

Wednesday's BetIQ Daily drops some conference tournament winner picks for the SEC and American Conference, and also has a Murray State pick.

March 9, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Can Murray State get an 8 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament? (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve been busy posting more picks for subscribers in our staff betting picks for conference championships. We’re up to 12-6 on resolved bets for +8.3 units. Both of our early conference tournament winner picks (Georgia State and Bryant) won, including Georgia State at +400.

We have a lot more conference tournament winner picks, some of which we tease here today at BetIQ Daily. But if you want them all, become a March Madness subscriber.

1) Kentucky (+200) to Win SEC

  • Best odds available at release time are at FanDuel (+200).
  • This one is playable to +150 pre-tournament start for Kentucky.
  • Wildcats have been even better than their raw power rating (which is at No. 3 nationally, behind only Gonzaga and Arizona) when you consider how their performances have been impacted by player absences.
  • From a motivational standpoint, Kentucky is now playing for a No. 1 seed if it wins the SEC title.
  • Wildcats’ top lineup is elite, and in the 22 games with their top five all healthy and finishing game, they have an average Game Score of +23.1, which is national champ contender level.
  • The other conference favorite, Auburn, has not played as well away from home, and the No. 6 seed in Kentucky’s quadrant, Alabama, has been wildly inconsistent and has major defensive issues and offensive turnover issues that Kentucky can exploit.

2) Memphis (+350) to Win American Athletic Conference

  • Best odds available at release time are at PointsBet (+350) and FanDuel (+350).
  • These odds have dropped from when we released the pick to subscribers on Tuesday (+400 at initial release).
  • This one is playable to +250 pre-tournament start for Memphis.
  • Memphis is surging over the last month and is playing like the best team in the conference and like a No. 2 or 3 seed-caliber team in NCAA Tournament.
  • Between the start of December and the end of January, Memphis used 13 different starting lineups in 13 games, and was in trouble and struggling to find consistency.
  • Since top freshman recruit Emoni Bates left the team because of back problems, the team has gone on a tear, putting up four of its five best Game Scores, including two big wins over Houston.
  • The biggest change for Memphis during its late-season rebound has been on defense, where it has been far more efficient and have limited opponent shooting percentages.
  • Houston, the top seed and market favorite, is the opposite, as its raw power rating is inflated by game outcomes with guard Marcus Sasser, who was lost for season in late December. Houston’s average Game Score since the injury is seven points worse than the average in games with Sasser.

3) Murray State to Be Seeded Under 8.5 (-115)

  • This prop is available at FanDuel at release time.
  • To win this wager, Murray State’s seed number needs to be 8 or lower on Selection Sunday.
  • Our current projection is for Murray State to be the final No. 7 seed or first No. 8 seed, giving a little leeway on this prop.
  • Murray State is “in the clubhouse” at 30-2 overall and 5-1 against the top two quadrants that the selection committee evaluates, and ranked No. 23 in the NET.
  • Racers’ last loss was in December at Auburn, a place where no SEC team won, either.
  • While they likely will be seeded lower than their metrics suggest because of their strength of schedule, they still offer value at coming in as a No. 8 seed or better.
  • Similar recent mid-major teams to Murray State based on ranking/record include: Loyola-Chicago 2021, No. 8 seed; Wofford 2019, No. 7 seed; Buffalo 2019, No. 6 seed.

What’s To Come

We have several more game picks at staff betting picks for conference championships, and the major conferences really get into full swing on Thursday. We are updating our bracketology breakdown daily through Selection Sunday as well.

And remember, if you are in an NCAA Tournament bracket pool, you can sign up now to get customized bracket picks with NCAA Bracket Picks 2022. We’ve also expanded our offerings and added tools for both March Madness Survivor Pools and Calcutta Pools.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our college basketball spread picks listed in BetIQ Daily went 19-13 in the month of February, and staff picks are now 12-6 in March as well. ATS college basketball picks rated as playable with 55.0% confidence are 16-7 since the start of February.

As of post time, here are some other highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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