Staff Betting Picks for NFL Week 1 and College Football (2022)
Our staff picks for NFL Week 1 and college football incorporate both algorithmic model predictions and our hands-on team and player research.
September 12, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
Saquon Barkley and the new-look Giants travel to Tennessee in Week 1 (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to the premier edition of our weekly Staff Betting Picks feature for the 2022 NFL and college football seasons.
The picks listed in this article represent a curated selection of our favorite football betting picks each week, along with our rationale behind each pick. A few other notes:
- We first introduced Staff Picks for March Madness 2022, which generated +20.1 units of profit across 84 picks.
- We also did Preseason Football Staff Picks over the summer, making 42 different picks.
- You can read about our why we are introducing this new feature here.
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NFL Week 1 and CFB Betting Picks
Picks Made to Date: 13
Last Release: Sun Sep 11 at 7:30 a.m. ET
Final Results: 8-5 for +2.8 units of profit (if flat-betting one unit per pick)
Skip to writeups: NFL Team Picks (4) | NFL Player Picks (6) | CFB Picks (3)
| Pick | Result |
|---|---|
| MIN -105 vs. GB | Won, 23-7 |
| PHI -4.5 at DET | Lost, 38-35 |
| NYG +5.5 at TEN | Won, 21-20 |
| PIT +6.5 at CIN | Won, 23-20 |
| Mike Evans Over 66.5 Rec Yards | Won, 71 Yards |
| Tua Tagoavailoa Over 231.5 Pass Yards | Won, 270 Yards |
| Baker Mayfield Over 31.5 Attempts | Lost, 27 Attempts |
| Elijah Moore Over 51.5 Rec Yards | Lost, 49 Yards |
| Matt Stafford Over 270.5 Pass Yards | Lost, 240 Yards |
| Cooper Kupp Over 89.5 Rec Yards | Won, 128 Yards |
| Nebraska -23.5 vs. Ga So. | Lost, 42-45 |
| Iowa State +150 vs. Iowa | Won, 10-7 |
| Tennessee -35.5 vs. Ball State | Won, 59-10 |
Pick Performance Review
On balance, it was a good week, and was close to being much better. The one truly bad pick was following the steam on Nebraska, a result that got Scott Frost fired after losing at home to a bad Georgia Southern team.
The NFL spread picks saw two outright underdog winners and a convincing win in a moneyline toss-up. The only loss came due to a backdoor non-cover late.
Player props went 3-3 but it took some late bad luck to not go over .500. The Evans prop covered in the 3rd quarter, and the Tua passing yards prop covered with over 8 minutes remaining, despite those teams playing with big leads and shutting down the passing late.
The Mayfield attempts prop was on pace to go Over at halftime (18 attempts at half, and trailing by 10), but Carolina somehow ended up running a ridiculously low 46 plays (excluding sacks) and the Browns had the ball most of the second half.
Moore, meanwhile, needed just eight more yards entering a garbage time drive when the Jets would be passing, but came up just short (and was called for offensive PI on his last target).
NFL Team Picks
RELEASED: Sunday, September 11 at 7:30 a.m. ET
Minnesota (-104) to win vs. Green Bay (WON, 23-7)
- Sunday, September 11th at 4:25 p.m. ET.
- -104 moneyline is available at FanDuel Sportsbook, and the +1 spread line is commonly available if you would rather pay the additional juice to get the push for a 1-point loss.
- Our Ensemble Forecast model shows 3% of value on Minnesota against the moneyline.
- News just came out in the middle of the night confirming that LT David Bakhtiari, RT Elgton Jenkins, and WR Allen Lazard will not be playing for Green Bay.
- Since 2002, the Vikings are 6-5 straight up and 8-3 against the spread when getting points at home against the Packers, including going 5-2 straight up as an underdog of three points or fewer.
RELEASED: Saturday, September 10 at 1:30 p.m. ET
Philadelphia (-4.5, -114) at Detroit (Lost, 38-35)
- Sunday, September 11th at 1 p.m. ET.
- The -4.5 line is still currently available at FanDuel Sportsbook, and this line is moving and ranges between 4.5 to 5.5 at various books, and is also playable at -5.
- Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Eagles a 55% chance of covering the spread.
- This line has been moving from the 3.5-point spread at the start of the week.
- Lions pro bowl center Frank Ragnow is questionable with a groin injury, starting RG Tommy Kraemer hasn’t practiced all week with a back injury, and G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (25 starts the last two years) is starting the year on PUP, so Detroit could have significant interior line issues going against Philadelphia’s defense.
RELEASED: Thursday, September 1 at 5 p.m. ET
New York Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee (WON, 21-20)
- Sunday, September 11th at 4:25 p.m. ET.
- The +5.5 line is currently available at most sports books, and you can get +6 right now at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Giants a 55% chance of covering the spread.
- The Giants were one of our preseason over picks in our Preseason Staff Picks, while the Titans have a lot of negative red flag factors entering the season.
- New York was substantially worse at the end of last season when QB Daniel Jones was out injured, and the team made what looks like a substantial coaching upgrade in firing Joe Judge and hiring former Bills OC Brian Daboll.
- Tennessee overachieved expectations a year ago, going 12-5 with a point differential more in line with a 10-7 team.
- The Titans also traded away star WR A.J. Brown this offseason, and has major turnover on offense.
- On September 1st, DE Harold Landry, who led the team in sacks in 2021, tore his ACL and will now miss the rest of the season, adding a late impact to the team that they haven’t been able to prepare for or address in the offseason.
RELEASED: Thursday, September 1 at 5 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Cincinnati (WON, 23-20 OT)
- Sunday, September 11th at 1 p.m. ET.
- The +6.5 line is currently available at most sports books, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet.
- Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Steelers a 56% chance of covering the spread.
- The Steelers-Bengals rivalry is one that has shown no home field advantage over a lengthy period of time. Since 2002, the home team is only 17-25 SU and 17-24-1 ATS in this series.
- Pittsburgh is 18-4 SU and 15-6-1 over the last 20 years in Cincinnati, and is 6-2 SU as a road dog over that time period.
NFL Player Picks
RELEASED: Sunday, September 11 at 7:30 a.m. ET
Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (WON, 71 Yards)
- Sunday, September 11th at 8:20 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at DraftKings.
- We are projecting Mike Evans for 78 yards in the Sunday Night Football game.
- At least early in the season, Evans should see a larger target share than normal because of Tampa Bay’s injury situation.
- Rób Gronkowski is no longer playing, Chris Godwin is expected to be active but on a snap count in his first game back from a December ACL tear, and WR Russell Gage missed multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play on Sunday night as well.
- Evans is the one established receiver who has worked with Brady in the past and should see a full complement of snaps.
RELEASED: Sunday, September 11 at 7:30 a.m. ET
Tua Tagoavailoa Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-115) (WON, 270 Yards)
- Sunday, September 11th at 1 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at DraftKings.
- Our passing yards model based on spread/total/team projection is for 262.8 passing yards.
- This is the largest difference between our model and the offered lines for all of Week 1, over 31 yards of value.
- It comes down to this: either Miami is mis-priced as a favorite of 3.5 points in a game with a 46 point total, and 24.75 expected points, or this prop is too conservative.
- Tua did pass for less than 210 yards in both games against New England last year, at low pass attempt volume, and New England was top 4 in most passing defense categories a year ago.
- Miami added WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason, and is slightly ahead of New England in the futures markets, and is playing this game at home, so in this case, we’ll go with the more robust team spread and totals market, versus a small sample of games and results from last year.
RELEASED: Saturday, September 10 at 2:30 p.m. ET
Baker Mayfield Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-105) (Lost, 27 attempts)
- Sunday, September 11th at 1 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at PointsBet Sportsbook, and you can also get 30.5 (-130) at DraftKings.
- Our prop model for pass attempts, based on spread/total and our team stat projections, is for 35.4 pass attempts for Mayfield.
- In seven games last year with Christian McCaffrey playing, the Panthers exceeded 32 pass attempts in five of them, including three wins. The two lowest pass attempt games came with Cam Newton at QB.
- Baker Mayfield is playing his former team, and we anticipate that getting a healthy Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore involved in the short passing game will be a big part of the gameplay.
- We show value on passing yards and completions as well, but the attempts prop is the highest value play here.
RELEASED: Saturday, September 10 at 2:30 p.m. ET
Elijah Moore Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) (Lost, 49 Yards)
- Sunday, September 11th at 1 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Elijah Moore is a second-year breakout that we project as a fringe top 25 WR this year.
- In his last 6 games played last year, he averaged 65.3 receiving yards and scored 5 touchdowns, before missing the final five weeks of the season.
- In the only game where Joe Flacco started last year, Moore had a career-high 8 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.
RELEASED: Wednesday, September 7 at 6 p.m. ET
Matthew Stafford Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-115) (Lost, 240 Yards)
- Thursday, September 8th at 8:20 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines have been moving up on Stafford’s passing yards since opening.
- Our Ensemble Forecast model has the Rams/Bills Over 52.0 as a playable pick, so there’s value on a higher scoring game.
- Our player prop passing model, which utilizes the spread and total, and also our team stat projections, projects Stafford for 284.1 yards, about 14 yards of value.
- The Bills led the NFL in net passing yards allowed last season and feasted on poor quarterbacks, but in their five highest Over/Under games (49.0 or higher) all five went over.
- Star cornerback Tre’Davious White missed the last eight games of last year (including the playoffs) and is starting on the PUP list.
- Patrick Mahomes (378 passing yards) and Tom Brady (363 passing yards), the two other star quarterbacks Buffalo has faced recently, both had big games against the Bills without White.
RELEASED: Wednesday, September 7 at 6 p.m. ET
Cooper Kupp Over 89.5 Passing Yards (-115) (WON, 128 Yards)
- Thursday, September 8th at 8:20 p.m. ET.
- This line is currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM.
- This is a correlated bet with the Stafford passing prop, for a lot of the same reasons offered above.
- In addition, the top wide receivers paired with those elite passers had big games against the Bills, with Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans all going for at least 90 yards.
- Further, Rams’ third wide receiver Van Jefferson has been ruled out for the game, and the Rams’ running backs (Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson) have been nursing injuries through the preseason, so we expect a more concentrated passing attack on Kupp, Allen Robinson, and tight end Tyler Higbee in this game.
- Kupp incredibly had 19 games last year (out of 21 total including the playoffs) where he reached 90 or more receiving yards, in his first year with Stafford at QB.
CFB Picks
RELEASED: Thursday, September 8 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Georgia Southern (Lost 42-45)
- Saturday, September 10th at 7:30 p.m. ET.
- The -23.5 line is currently available at most sports books, including DraftKings, BetMGM and PointsBet.
- This line opened at -21 earlier this week and has continued to steam upward, and we are going with that momentum.
- Our Ensemble Forecast Model also gives Nebraska a 56.5% chance of covering the spread.
- Meanwhile, this line is way off based on our predictive model, but that can be a negative indicator, that the market is moving because of matchup or player participation info behind the scenes.
RELEASED: Thursday, September 8 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Iowa State (+150) vs. Iowa (WON, 10-7)
- Saturday, September 10th at 4 p.m. ET.
- This moneyline is available at DraftKings.
- Our Ensemble Forecast Model has Iowa State as one of the top playable moneyline games in college football this weekend.
- Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has had historic success at Iowa State, but one thing he has yet to do is beat Iowa, going 0-6 so far.
- Iowa is coming off an ugly 7-3 win over South Dakota State that included two safeties and a field goal. How ugly? Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed only 11 passes on 29 drop backs (including four sacks) and averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
- We’ll take the team we have rated slightly higher on a neutral field in an upset at Iowa, and play against that terrible offensive start for Iowa.
RELEASED: Thursday, September 1 at 5 p.m. ET
Tennessee (-35.5) vs. Ball State (WON, 59-10)
- The -35.5 line is currently available at most sports books, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet.
- Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Vols a 57% chance of covering the spread.
- This game has been getting steamed up over the last two weeks, as the spread opened at 31.5 points. Two weeks ago, it was at 32.5 points.
- Our predictive ratings model would strongly favor Ball State, but when the line moves far off the predictive ratings model expectation, it is usually because of player or participation news, and it can be a negative indicator.
- A week ago, the NCAA cleared WR Bru McCoy to play right away after transferring from USC. McCoy was one of the nation’s top prospects before facing off-field charges that were dismissed before he transferred.
- Ball State is replacing QB Drew Plitt, who started 45 career games, with 5’11” fifth-year senior John Paddock, who has thrown 34 total passes in four years.
About Our Football Staff Picks
We created the Staff Betting Picks feature to address several opportunities to provide more value to our subscribers:
- BetIQ and TeamRankings offer a LOT of predictions and data, but it’s not fast or easy to parse through it all. Some subscribers just want to see a short list of our top/favorite picks.
- Many bettors enjoy reading the rationale behind a recommended pick, as opposed to blindly trusting “because the model said so” as the reason.
- Our algorithmic models for NFL and college football make predictions for full-game point spread, over/under, and moneyline bets. However, there’s a lot more to bet on than that.
- Although bet size limits tend to be lower for markets like props and futures, those types of markets sometimes offer some of the biggest edges.
- Our model predictions often change as they digest new data such as betting line movement and new game results. That approach has a lot of benefits, because the predictions shown always reflect the most up-to-date data we have. However, some subscribers just want to see a pick that doesn’t change.
- As we do research on teams and players, sometimes we see a situational or one-time angle on a bet that we are confident provides expected value, and that angle may not be something that our models are well trained to pick up. Models typically need a lot of historical data to work well, and deep historical data simply doesn’t exist for situations that are less common (e.g. quirky injuries or weather or another more creative angle).
Some (and potentially the majority) of our Staff Picks will be drawn from top-rated model picks, but we’ll explain the data angle(s) that our models are likely seeing. Other Staff Picks may not be even be favored by our models, but we’re making a judgment call to overrule them.
Finally, some Staff Picks will be bets like player props and futures that our game models don’t currently cover, or more market-based value opportunities that we see (e.g. an off-market line offered by a particular sportsbook).
For each pick we make, we will note the sportsbook that offered it, and the associated line/payout odds at the time when we published it.