Super Bowl 59 Betting Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles Picks & Predictions

Picks, predictions, and betting odds (point spread, over/under, and props) for Super Bowl 59: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) gets the crowd excited before the NFC Wild Card playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles on January 12th, 2025 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.

Can Jalen Hurts and the Eagles top the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59? (Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

This article consolidates our Super Bowl 2025 picks, predictions, and betting analysis for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.

We also cover Super Bowl 59 props, player projections, betting odds, and news — all with frequent updates as kickoff nears on Sunday.

The 2025 Super Bowl will take place at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on Sunday, February 9 with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 pm ET.

Super Bowl 2025 Picks & Predictions Menu

Our game picks for the 2025 Super Bowl will be posted on Wednesday, February 5. This means the odds/lines will be according to the available numbers at that time. We will update the links below when each section goes live.

The game-winner, moneyline pick, and against-the-spread pick are free. However, further picks and analysis (over/under pick, props we like, team and player stat projections, etc.) require a premium subscription that includes BetIQ site access.

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Best Sportsbook Offers

Sportsbooks tend to roll out the red carpet this time of year to attract new customers for online sports betting, which is now available and legal in many states.

If you’re ready to sign up for your first online sports betting account for the Big Game (or you want to add an account to take advantage of bonus offers), here are the best deals from our two favorite U.S. sportsbooks:


Our Approach To Super Bowl Picks

The Super Bowl is a unique game when it comes to betting. As our subscribers know, our algorithmic models predict every NFL matchup. However, using historical data to unearth an as-yet-undiscovered (and more importantly, a meaningful) handicapping angle on one of the world’s most scrutinized sporting events is often a tall order.

As a result, our models often consider the most popular Super Bowl betting lines pretty accurate (or “efficient” in betting terms) and don’t have a strong lean on the most popular bets like the full-game point spread and over/under.

That’s not a bad thing. Though there can be exceptions in some years, if you think sportsbook lines for the Super Bowl are way off reality, it’s probably (but not always) you who’s missing something.

But this is the Super Bowl, and you probably want some action. So, in this post, we’ll go beyond our model predictions to lay out our logic for popular full-game picks, including an against-the-spread pick and an over/under pick (i.e., the total points scored by both teams).

In addition, the amazing variety of bets and odds offered by bookmakers on Super Bowl LVIII also opens up opportunities to find expected value on more esoteric pick types that our models don’t directly cover. That includes player props, derivative bets, and other Super Bowl prop bets.

We’ll be doing a lot of hands-on research into the matchup and point out some of these lesser-known bets that we like best.


Wednesday, February 5th 

Game Winner and Moneyline Pick Analysis For Super Bowl 59

As of this writing on Wednesday, February 5, our Ensemble Forecast model does not have a playable moneyline pick on the Super Bowl with Kansas City as a slight -120 favorite with Philadelphia at +100. (If you’re new to betting, a moneyline bet is when you bet a team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread.)

However, we know that a lot of you will want a pick on the game. There are a lot of player and team props out there, and we highlighted some of our favorite ones already. But we also want to go through and provide our handicapping thoughts on this matchup, even if our official Ensemble Forecast model does not have a play on the final game.

Where Our Various Models Do Stand

Our Ensemble Forecast model is a blend of several different models and factors, and it is the official model pick used when we report our results. However, we also have several other models that you can see.

Decision Tree Model

The Decision Tree Model is the output of a machine learning algorithm that looks at the relationship between a large number of statistical factors, both for the season and in more recent games. These can range from team rates, overall stats, turnover margins, pass/run ratios, and much more.

The Decision Tree Model does favor Philadelphia at the current +100 line in the Super Bowl.

Some of the key statistical categories showing up in Philadelphia’s favor include Kansas City’s lower rush yards per game and yards per rush in recent games, as well as Kansas City’s rushing defense performance in yards per carry allowed over the last seven games.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s high turnover margins in recent games are a factor in favor of Kansas City. This is likely due to the potential for regression.

Similar Games Model

The Similar Games model, as the name implies, looks at the results of similar games by power rating and point margin for both teams. That model favors Kansas City.

Predictive Ratings Model

The Predictive Ratings Model (or Power Ratings Model) looks at our overall power ratings for the two teams. It includes the results of all games played this year.

Our overall NFL power ratings have Philadelphia at +8.1 points better than the average NFL team and Kansas City at +4.6 points better, for a 3.5-point difference in favor of Philadelphia on a neutral field.

However, this comes with some significant caveats and should be viewed more as a baseline for handicapping. For example, it will not know about injuries (both present, and in the past that impacted previous results), or other notable factors that make a team more likely to win or lose than their full-season rating.

In the Chiefs’ case, the Week 18 game where they rested starters, put out a vanilla game plan, and lost 38-0 at Denver is a massive outlier. However, it still counts as one of 19 games factored into this model and is weighed the same as the Chiefs’ AFC Championship win over the Bills.

We say all this to point out that additional context is needed when using this model.

Super Bowl 59 Game Winner Analysis

The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the third time in a row and the fifth time in six years. They are trying to become the first team to win the Super Bowl three straight times. It was a challenging year on offense for Kansas City, as numerous receiver injuries and offensive line instability resulted in Patrick Mahomes posting his lowest yards per game and passing touchdown totals since he became a starter. Despite that, Kansas City is 17-1 in games started by Mahomes this year, going an incredible 12-0 in games decided by eight points or less.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are back again to try to get revenge for the 38-35 defeat to Kansas City in Super Bowl 57. This time, they have RB Saquon Barkley, who ran for over 2,000 yards this season and has turned the offense into a rushing juggernaut. On defense, the Eagles look very different compared to two years ago. Only three of the top 11 players in defensive snaps played in the Super Bowl two years ago are starters for this game: C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay, and Josh Sweat. The Eagles have completely overhauled their defensive secondary with youth. Both DT Jalen Carter and LB Zack Baun have been key figures in the defensive resurgence.

Why You Should Pick the Eagles

Beyond the “they are better because they had a better point differential” position, there are two primary areas you could focus on to make a case for the Eagles.

First, related to the offense: they dealt with notable injuries throughout the year to all their key offensive skill players except for Saquon Barkley. Case in point:

  • QB Jalen Hurts left early Week 16 vs. Washington due to a concussion. He then missed the next two games.
  • WR A.J. Brown missed Weeks 2-to-4 with a hamstring injury.
  • WR DeVonta Smith also missed Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay with a concussion. He missed three other games with a hamstring injury.
  • TE Dallas Goedert missed seven games total, including an IR stint due to a knee injury late in the year.

Those four only played seven complete games together (out of 20). Here’s a chart showing the average power rating when each player did and did not play (for this purpose, we are treating Hurts as not playing against Washington in Week 16, as he left very early).

Player Games WithWithWithout
AJ Brown1613.0-4.6
DeVonta Smith1610.55.6
Dallas Goedert138.611.2
Jalen Hurts179.68.9
All 4 in Same Game713.47.4

Philadelphia was +6.0 points better in games with all those offensive starters playing versus without them.

When they have their full complement of offensive weapons, this offense is elite, and that has somewhat been masked the injuries and run-heavy game scripts while playing with leads.

The second reason to pick the Eagles comes down to defense. The most notable change for Philadelphia this season was on that end. The Eagles finished 30th in points allowed last year, bouncing back to lead the NFL in the following categories this season (all stats include playoffs):

Philadelphia has a statistical advantage over Kansas City in most defensive categories. On paper, they certainly look like the superior side.

Why You Should Pick the Chiefs

When thinking about the Chiefs, we could simply post the IQ Bell Curve meme and end the discussion there:

Patrick Mahomes has a case as the best quarterback of all time. There are so many ridiculous stats related to Mahomes that they defy logic. Here’s a notable one: Patrick Mahomes is 19-14 all-time, including 5-2 in the playoffs when trailing by 10+ points at any point in the game.

According to Fox Sports, Joe Montana won 39.5% of games where he trailed by 10+ at any point, the second-best mark in NFL history. Tom Brady had a winning percentage of 37.1% in those contests. So, you could look at it like this: Patrick Mahomes has a better winning percentage when you put him in a 10-point hole than most quarterbacks do overall. He’s done it in all three Super Bowl wins, falling behind 10-0 last year, trailing Philadelphia 24-14 at the half two years ago, and losing 20-10 to San Francisco in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 54.

It’s hard to put away the Chiefs with Mahomes at QB, even if there are parts of the game where things are not going well. Picking against him in big games has been extremely unprofitable, and the case for several past opponents has been similar to the one we made for the Eagles in the section above.

This year, Mahomes’ stats look human. He averaged only 6.8 yards per pass attempt and threw only 26 touchdown passes — tied for his lowest (with a year where he missed three games because of injury). Still, he played at a high level, as the stats reflected a massive amount of wide receiver injuries/turnover, as well as problems at offensive tackle.

The Chiefs still finished third in third down conversion percentage and led the NFL in average plays per drive. The offense was not explosive, but it was still efficient.

The offense has also been getting better at the right time. Their three best offensive games, according to Aaron Schatz’s DVOA, have come in the last four starts with Mahomes and the starters playing. That timing is not random. It coincides with Kansas City shifting Joe Thuney to left tackle to address a significant issue, as PFF graded the KC left tackle play as 31st-best in the NFL (out of 32 teams) through 14 weeks.

It also corresponds with the return of WR Hollywood Brown, who made his debut against Houston in Week 16 after missing the first 14 games due to a shoulder injury. The Chiefs’ receiving corps was decimated after the loss of Rashee Rice, and it has been a team weakness. With rookie Xavier Worthy’s emergence and Brown’s return, the Chiefs are looking more like a Super Bowl offense.

Finally, a word on the Eagles pass defense. They put up great numbers in leading the NFL. But they also beat up on the rotating cast of New York Giants characters and Cooper Rush twice with Dallas. These two defenses faced seven quarterbacks in common: Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Bryce Young. Here’s how they each did against that group.

CategoryPass AttemptsPass YardsYards per PassPass TDsPass INTs
PHI vs. common QBs23015206.6193
KC vs. common QBs23715946.7393

Those are good numbers for both teams, but it’s remarkable how similar they are — especially since the overall season stats are not. Philadelphia dominated some bad quarterbacks that the Chiefs did not face. Kansas City allowed Aidan O’Connell to have a big day on Black Friday, so maybe the Chiefs are simply not as good at dominating bad quarterbacks.

But in this matchup, we should be worried about how teams do against better passing offenses. The only quality veteran pocket passer the Eagles faced — that the two teams did not have in common — was Matthew Stafford. The Rams QB averaged over 280 passing yards with four total touchdowns and more than 7.0 yards per attempt in two starts against Philly. Other than Stafford, the best quarterbacks the Eagles faced (that the Chiefs did not) were rookie Jayden Daniels and second-year starter Jordan Love. Then there was a massive dropoff in quality.

So there is a real and potentially decisive question: is this an elite passing defense, capable of doing what Seattle’s Legion of Boom did to Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Super Bowl 48? Or is this a really good defense with inflated stats thanks to facing some bad NFC offenses?

After all, the Chiefs’ previous Super Bowl victims (San Francisco 2020, Philadelphia 2023, San Francisco 2024) ranked 1st, 1st, and 5th in respectively pass efficiency defense before giving up an average of  31.3 points in the Super Bowl.

2025 Super Bowl Game Winner Pick: Kansas City

If forced to make a pick here, we are going with the “Pick Mahomes” philosophy. Last year, we felt stronger about the Chiefs as a play, and much of our analysis played out as expected. This year, one primary difference is the price: we are not getting plus-money to take Mahomes.

Still, Kansas City is the pick. They are extremely hard to put away, and the Chiefs have the edge at quarterback if the game is close.

Also, it’s not clear that Jalen Hurts’ knee is 100% healthy. If his mobility is impacted, he could struggle against late-game blitzes from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. We’ve seen that repeatedly, where the other team’s QB cannot make the play in a key third or fourth down (think Josh Allen vs. surprise overload blitz in the AFC Championship, Brock Purdy late in the game last year). Hurts isn’t a polished passer, and if this game comes down to a quarterback making a play under pressure late, then we’ll side with Mahomes.

Then again, the Eagles offense could be for real. This is definitely a “pick-your-poison” game for the Chiefs’ defense. Will they allocate defensive resources to stop Saquon Barkley? If so, will they be successful, and could that free up talented playmakers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith?

In truth, we would probably play this through the spread if it is only at -1 rather than lay the extra juice on the moneyline.


Wednesday, February 5th 

Against The Spread Pick For Super Bowl 59

Our models are close to a dead heat when it comes to the one-point spread in this game.

We laid out the bigger arguments in the previous section on our Game Winner and Moneyline pick, so read that out if you haven’t yet.

Since the point spread is so short, the analysis regarding the spread and outright winner are roughly the same.

2025 Super Bowl Point Spread Pick: Kansas City -1

As with our game-winner pick, we like the relative value of Kansas City. As we noted in our analysis, the Chiefs’ offense has peaked now that we have entered the playoffs. Shifting Joe Thuney to left tackle and getting Marquise “Hollywood” Brown back at wide receiver has provided a much-needed boost to the passing game.

We also think the difference in the two defenses is not as large as the regular season statistical numbers would suggest, and we like getting Patrick Mahomes with a low point spread. Remember, Kansas City had trouble covering larger lines this season, but they were great in games with tighter spreads.

Betting Moneyline Vs. Point Spread

One important question to explore in this case is how often the point spread vs. moneyline matters for a game with precisely a one-point spread.

Going back to 2002, using our NFL Custom Trends Tool, we can see that teams that were favorites of exactly one point had nine pushes (of 418 total games) where they won by exactly a point. That works out to about 2.15%, almost the same as difference between -1 (-110) and -120 on the moneyline. So, if you have a strong preference for one versus the other: either is fine. And if you are getting a better moneyline or lower vig on the spread than our average numbers show, that would be the way to go.

A Note for Eagles Fans…

If you disagree with our analysis and prefer the Eagles, that’s okay. We laid out our reasoning, weighing the pros and cons. It’s reasonable if you read our analysis and came to the conclusion that Philadelphia is the superior side. Our goal with the analysis was not only to give you a pick, but provide reasoning for both teams to help form your own decisions.

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Thursday, February 6th 

Over/Under Pick For Super Bowl 59

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