Super Bowl 60 Picks: Spread, Total & Best Bets (Seahawks vs. Patriots)

Our top Super Bowl 60 picks for Seahawks vs. Patriots, with data-backed analysis and best bets on the spread, total, and moneyline.

by Jason Lisk - Feb 6, 2026

Welcome to our Super Bowl 60 betting picks for Seahawks vs. Patriots, where we’ll break down the moneyline, spread, and total to find value and lock in our best bets.

Super Bowl betting is its own animal. It’s one game with endless markets and lines so tight that almost everything feels priced in. However, value still shows up when you’re willing to ignore the noise and focus on what the data is actually saying.

So that’s the approach here. We’ll take a look at our models, compare this matchup to similar games, and review some realistic game scripts that could shape how the spread, total, and moneyline should be played.

Looking for props? Check out our Super Bowl prop bets article for seven picks we love.

Super Bowl 60 Picks: Published Content

When we publish or update a section, we will list it below with the corresponding date it was posted.

Here’s our Super Bowl 60 Picks content so far:

• 2/4: Super Bowl Offer: Put in $25, Get $50
• 2/4: Game Winner/Moneyline Analysis for Super Bowl 60
• 2/4: Spread Analysis for Super Bowl 60
• 2/4: Over/Under Analysis for Super Bowl 60

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Wednesday, Feb. 4

Super Bowl Offer: Put in $25, Get $50 at NoVig

Before we get into the picks and analysis, quick heads up: NoVig is running a Super Bowl special where they’ll match your first purchase up to $25.

In other words: put in $25, they’ll add $25 on top.

NoVig is a sports prediction app available in 35+ states, including some where DraftKings and FanDuel aren’t live yet (like Texas and Florida). And if you want to compare offers, we put together a full page of Super Bowl betting promos.

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Wednesday, Feb. 4

Super Bowl 60: Game Winner / Moneyline Analysis

As of this writing, our Ensemble Forecast model does not have an official moneyline play on the Super Bowl.

New England at +195 is just below our playable threshold, while Seattle is now favored by about five points in many markets, with a moneyline around -235.

That said, here’s how we’re thinking about the matchup from a handicapping perspective.

Model Snapshot

• Ensemble Forecast: No official pick (NE ML just short of value)

• Decision Tree: Lean Seattle

• Similar Games: Lean Seattle

• Power Ratings: SEA +9.6 vs. NE +5.3 (SEA about 4.3 points better on neutral based on full-season results)

• Market: Line has moved to SEA -5, slightly above ratings

Team Context

Seattle enters as the No. 1 team in our power ratings and the first Super Bowl favorite of more than a field goal since New England vs. Philadelphia following the 2017 season. They’ve been the most consistent team in the league all year, pairing an elite defense with an efficient offense that has found ways to win even through injuries. Despite a mediocre turnover margin (31st in turnovers committed), they rank at the top due to being top two in net yards per pass attempt on offense, net yards per pass attempt on defense, and rush yards per carry allowed.

New England has been one of the league’s biggest surprise teams, making a rapid leap behind second-year QB Drake Maye and new head coach Mike Vrabel. They were able to build momentum and a strong record, though, against a historically soft slate. The Patriots played eight games against the bottom six teams in our power ratings and ten against the bottom nine. They also caught a playoff matchup with Denver to get to the Super Bowl after the Broncos had just lost QB Bo Nix. This is a major step up in class, and against a defense that is as good as anyone they have faced, with the potential exception of Houston. Drake Maye’s 15 sacks over the last three playoff games, after a change in opponent quality, suggest that Seattle’s defense could similarly harass the young QB.

Why You’d Pick the Patriots

• Super Bowl underdog trend: Underdogs have performed well in recent Super Bowls, particularly against top seeds and those favored by more than a field goal. Seattle is the first favorite of more than a field goal in years, and the last three favorites of that size all lost outright. The last 20 years has shown us to expect the unexpected in the final game.

• Market vs. ratings gap: Our ratings make Seattle a strong favorite, but the market has pushed beyond that number, which is why New England’s ML is at least worth discussing.

• Quarterback volatility: Drake Maye has shown poise well beyond his experience level, and Sam Darnold has been playing through an oblique injury. In a single-game setting, that matters.

Why You’d Pick the Seahawks

• Best team by the numbers: Seattle is No. 1 in our power ratings and grades out as the most complete team in the league, highly efficient in so many key areas.

• Path matters: New England’s résumé is inflated by schedule quality, while Seattle has proven itself repeatedly against stronger competition.

• Defensive edge: With New England dealing with availability issues for key defenders like Robert Spillane and Harold Landry, this may not be the spot where a young offense can hide.

• Historical caution cuts both ways: While big Super Bowl favorites have struggled, the last team favored by more than a field goal to win outright was Pittsburgh over Arizona (2008)— and that team was also the clear best team entering the game.

Final Take

If forced to pick a side, Seattle is the more likely winner, and it’s not hard to justify why: they’re the top-rated team, they faced a much tougher path to get here, and New England is stepping into the deepest water they’ve seen all season.

At the same time, history gives us reason to be cautious about laying a big Super Bowl number. That’s why our official model stops short of a play, and why New England at a big price remains at least defensible — even if it’s just below our betting threshold.

This is a classic Super Bowl tension: elite team vs. inflated line — and price sensitivity matters more than ever here.

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Wednesday, Feb. 4

Super Bowl 60: Spread Analysis

At the current number of Seattle -4.5 (or -5, depending on the book), our Ensemble Forecast model shows a slight lean toward New England, projecting the Patriots to cover approximately 52% of the time at +5, and 50.6% at +4.5. That edge is not large enough to qualify as an official play.

Model opinions are mixed but instructive:

• Decision Tree: Slight lean New England

• Similar Games: Slight lean Seattle

• Power Ratings: Seattle by 4.3 on a neutral field, making the current line slightly inflated relative to our baseline

Looking at the full season, both teams improved as they went on. Both lost their season openers at home and had multiple losses within the first five weeks. And both have lost only once since Week 5.

As you might expect, with two teams that entered the season with middling projections but have emerged as Super Bowl participants, both are strong against the number. Seattle’s only non-cover since Week 5 has been the one-point win over the Rams when favored by 1.5 points, and in two games where they were a double-digit favorite.

The Patriots, for their part, are 4-2 straight up this year when they are an outright dog. These teams have covered 10 and 9 games respectively by double digits versus the number.

Why You’d Pick the Patriots ATS

• Super Bowl underdogs: Going all the way back to 1995, underdogs of more than a field goal are 8-10 SU but 13-3-2 ATS. Teams that reached the Super Bowl after playing in the Wild Card Round are a ridiculous 14-1-1 ATS over that span.

• Patriots Passing Could Rebound: Drake Maye’s playoff numbers are down, but the Patriots did finish the regular season at No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt (7.7), a factor that could make them a live dog.

• Seattle Has Been Turnover Prone: Seattle hasn’t committed a turnover in the last three wins, but did have 28 turnovers in the regular season, and has been vulnerable and lost when the offense has been mistake-prone, including the first game against the Rams and some key late turnovers in the home loss to Tampa.

Why You’d Pick the Seahawks ATS

• Best team by the numbers: Seattle is No. 1 in our power ratings and grades out as the most complete team in the league, they are also 2nd in rush yards per carry allowed and also net yards per pass attempt allowed, showing that they really have no weakness on defense. Here are the last three teams to show up to the Super Bowl while being ranked No. 1 in our predictive ratings entering the game: Tampa Bay 2020 (won by 22 as 3-pt dog), New England 2017 (lost by 8 as 4.5-pt fave), New England 2016 (won by 6 as 3-pt fave).
• Drake Maye sacked against the top defenses: Seattle is the seventh opponent inside the top 10 in net yards per pass allowed that New England has faced. Maye has been sacked a whopping 28 times in the previous 6 games, or 4.7 per game. If he is sacked that much in this one, Seattle is going to have a chance to roll.
• Seattle’s passing offense is elite: New England may have led the league in yards per attempt, but Seattle wasn’t far behind, and did it against a tougher schedule. They also have the best receiver, and a breakout first-team all-pro, in Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who could be the difference maker in this one.

Final Take

The head says Seattle. The history says take the points and New England. 

It comes down to whether you think Drake Maye can elevate his game here compared with recent playoff performances, in which the Patriots advanced on defense. The 14.7 offensive first downs, 5 sacks a game, and sub-60 percent completions in the playoffs may have been good enough to get them here, but they probably aren’t keeping them in this one. Maye will have to make plays because Seattle’s run defense can force third-and-long situations.

That said, Maye and the Patriots offense ranked at the top of the league in yards per pass attempt, and they largely handled the weaker teams on their schedule, aside from the Week 1 home loss to the Raiders.

The team with the better rate of stopping first downs via the run (which is strongly Seattle, where only 28.6% of first downs against them have come on the ground this year) and better rate of allowing touchdowns in the red zone (again, Seattle at 50.9% compared to 60.4%) has underperformed in the Super Bowl against the number. Teams that are more heavily skewed toward forcing first downs via the pass are 7-14 ATS in the Super Bowl, and those with a better red zone TD rate are 9-13 ATS.

So if you can get the +5, we say New England, along with our model lean. It’s a close call, and we like Seattle to win outright, but New England to make it a competitive game.

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Wednesday, Feb. 4

Super Bowl 60: Over/Under Analysis

The Super Bowl total is set at 45.5, and this is one of the few markets where our models show a meaningful lean.

The Ensemble Forecast favors the Over at 53%, and our Similar Games model is even stronger at 57%, which is enough for us to side with the Over in this matchup.

That said, the case is not one-sided, and the Under has strong support.

The Case for the Under

The Under argument starts with defensive strength. Seattle has been one of the league’s most complete defenses all season, combining an elite pass defense with a strong rush defense that allowed just 3.7 yards per carry. New England has also leaned heavily on defense during its postseason run.

Offensively, New England’s path to the Super Bowl has been unusually low scoring. During the playoffs, the Patriots have averaged just 18.0 points per game, the lowest of any Super Bowl participant since 2000, while allowing only 8.3 points a game over their three playoff wins. That 26.3 total points per game average in a Super Bowl run trails only the 2000 Baltimore Ravens for the fewest combined points during a Super Bowl run.

Profiles like that naturally pull totals down and help explain why this number is sitting well below recent Super Bowl norms (45.5 is the lowest Super Bowl total in a decade).

Add in New England’s high offensive sack rate — which can stall drives and shorten games — and it’s easy to see why many will lean Under.

The Case for the Over

At the same time, several of those same factors have historically pointed toward Overs in the Super Bowl, not Unders.

Our research into historical trends shows that Super Bowls featuring elite pass defenses, strong rush defenses, and higher offensive sack rates have tended to exceed scoring expectations.

For example, when we have strong pass defenses, such as here with the two averaging under 5.5 net yards per pass allowed, the Over has won 10 of 14 times in the Super Bowl over the last 30 years. And when the two teams have combined for a 6.0% or higher sack rate on offense, as we have in this one, those Super Bowls are 9 Overs and 4 Unders.

Many of our model factors are also related to regression potential and value on the Over, such as Seattle’s recent low rate of allowing early opponent scores in the first quarter, both teams’ recent defensive performance, and New England’s high offensive sack rate in recent games.

Furthermore, when teams reach the Super Bowl (such as New England) after stretches of suppressed scoring — often driven by defensive dominance — the Over has been the more common result. Here are the 10 lowest-scoring (both points for and against) runs to reach a Super Bowl since 2000:

TEAM	YEAR	PF	PA	TOTAL	SB O/U	SB Points	O/U Result
BAL	2000	20.3	5.3	25.7	33.0	41	Over
NE	2003	20.5	14.0	34.5	38.0	61	Over
PHI	2017	26.5	8.5	35.0	49.0	74	Over
IND	2009	25.0	10.0	35.0	56.5	48	Under
NE	2001	20.0	15.0	35.0	53.0	37	Under
NYG	2000	30.5	5.0	35.5	33.0	41	Over
CAR	2003	24.0	12.0	36.0	38.0	61	Over
DEN	2013	20.0	16.5	36.5	47.0	51	Over
KC	2023	23.3	13.7	37.0	46.5	47	Over
TB	2002	29.0	8.0	37.0	44.0	69	Over

New England would rank second-lowest on this list. A couple of those Super Bowls featured low-scoring affairs, but in the eight Super Bowls that included at least one of these teams, they went over six times. The only two Unders had really high totals, still over 52 points, based on the perceived quality of the quarterbacks and offenses.

Final Take

There are credible reasons to respect the Under, particularly given the strength of both defenses and New England’s low-scoring playoff run. But history, matchup dynamics, and our models all point in the same direction: totals in these defensive Super Bowl matchups have been priced too low more often than not.

What we’ve actually seen in Super Bowls with strong defenses, particularly strong run defenses like Seattle, and with teams that take sacks at a high rate, like New England, is a lot higher variance outcomes. Scoring doesn’t come only from long, sustained drives; in fact, fewer, longer drives can result in Unders when efficient offenses reduce turnovers.

We like the potential for big plays (both on offense and defense), and more passing and variance, precisely because the rush defenses strengthen as the game progresses. After all, we have the two teams that ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in net pass yards per pass attempt, and they are capable of making big plays.

Our Pick: Over 45.5