Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: By Total, Pass/Rush Efficiency, Turnover Margin & More
Will Super Bowl LVII go over or under the total points line? Some stat trends show surprising correlation to Super Bowl over/under results.
January 31, 2023 - by Jason Lisk
DeVonta Smith could have a direct impact on the Super Bowl LVII total. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we’ll look at historical data trends regarding team performance against the Super Bowl over/under line (also known as the game total or total points scored line).
While you always need to be cautious when it comes to trend-based analysis, this information can be helpful for making an over/under pick for Super Bowl LVII in 2023, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Analysis Of Historical Super Bowl Over/Under Trends
The trends we will investigate include:
- How many Super Bowls have gone over vs. under the game total line, both overall and at various line values.
- Super Bowl game scoring based on the passing and rushing characteristics of the two teams involved.
- Total scoring in the Super Bowl based on how the opponents ranked in sack rate and turnover margin.
Super Bowl Over/Under Trends By Line Value
Here is a look at the last 27 Super Bowls, and how many games have gone over or under, with some observations below:
|All Point Totals||13||14||48.1%|
|O/U of 45 or Below||4||1||80.0%|
|O/U of 45.5 to 50||6||5||54.5%|
|O/U Above 50||3||8||27.3%|
|Spread 3 or less||5||4||55.6%|
|Spread 3.5 to 6||3||4||42.9%|
|Spread 6.5 or more||5||6||45.5%|
- While there have been some streaks, the historical distribution of overs and unders is fairly even over this time period.
- However, the games with the lowest over/under lines have been higher scoring than the games with the highest over/under lines.
- There has not been a strong relationship between the expected total and actual scoring in the Super Bowl in the last 27 years.
Over/Under Trends By Passing and Rushing Stats
Next, let’s dig into several team-level passing and rushing stats to see how these characteristics related to Super Bowl totals and scoring.
Here’s a look at performance grouped by the average yards per carry (YPC) of the two Super Bowl teams combined.
While yards per carry is a “noisy” stat that can be skewed by big play luck, it still identifies teams that either made big plays or consistently gained yards versus those that didn’t.