Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: Insights For Super Bowl 59

Will Super Bowl 59 go over or under the total points line? Some stat trends show surprising correlation to Super Bowl over/under results.

January 26, 2025 - by Jason Lisk

Historical Super Bowl over/under trends can help paint a picture to inform your betting decisions ahead of Super Bowl 59 — played on February 9, 2025.

It’s important to remember that past results don’t guarantee future outcomes, but understanding historical line movement and how the betting market reacts can be useful in this situation.

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends

The trends we will investigate include:

• How many Super Bowls have gone over/under? Sorted by closing line and various line values.
• Super Bowl game scoring based on both teams’ pass and rush stats.
• Total scoring in the Super Bowl based on how both teams ranked in sack rate and turnover margin.

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: Line Value

Here is a look at the last 29 Super Bowls and how many games have gone over/under:

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
All Point Totals	14	14	50.0%
O/U of 45 or Below	4	1	80.0%
O/U of 45.5 to 50	6	5	54.5%
O/U Above 50	4	8	33.3%
Spread 3 or less	6	4	60.0%
Spread 3.5 to 6	3	4	42.9%
Spread 6.5 or more	5	6	45.5%

• While there have been some streaks, the historical distribution of overs and unders has been fairly even.
• Ironically, games with the lowest totals have been higher scoring than games with the highest over/under lines.
• There has not been a strong relationship between the expected total and actual scoring in the Super Bowl in the last 29 years.

2025 Analysis: The game has opened at 49.5 between Kansas City and Philadelphia, with a small 1.5-point spread.

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: Passing and Rushing Stats

Next, let’s dig into several team-level passing and rushing stats to see how these characteristics relate to Super Bowl totals and scoring.

Rushing Offense

Here’s a look at performance grouped by the average yards per carry (YPC) of the two Super Bowl teams combined.

While yards per carry is a “noisy” stat that can be skewed by big play luck, it still identifies teams that either made big plays or consistently gained yards versus those that didn’t.

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
COMBINED RUSH YPC 4.3+ OFFENSE	7	7	50.0%
COMBINED RUSH YPC 3.75 TO 4.25	5	7	41.7%
COMBINED RUSH YPC 3.7 OR WORSE	3	0	100.0%

• Most Super Bowl teams have averaged at least a decent number of yards per carry. But all of the games went over in the three Super Bowls with the lowest YPC average for the offenses. The underdogs were pass-heavy in those games, with all three featuring at least 73 combined pass attempts. Note: all three games were played before this decade.
• The next three games with the lowest offensive yards per carry went under two of three times. But one went under by a point (Chicago-Indianapolis), with the Colts running it on fourth down rather than kicking a field goal up by 12 late. The other was the second Giants-Patriots Super Bowl, which featured the second-most first downs combined in a Super Bowl in the last 25 years. The teams combined for 81 pass attempts but managed only 38 points.

• So, while lower yards per carry indicates that the teams might pass more, they still have to convert those chances.

2025 Analysis: Thanks to Philadelphia being among the league leaders in yards per carry at 4.9, this game qualifies as an above average game in terms of combined yards per carry for the rushing offenses.

Rushing Defense

Now, let’s turn to rush defenses and look at the average yards per carry allowed by the two Super Bowl teams.

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
COMBINED RUSH YPC ALLOWED 4.3 OR MORE	3	6	33.3%
COMBINED RUSH YPC ALLOWED 4.25 TO 3.75	6	6	50.0%
COMBINED RUSH YPC ALLOWED 3.7 OR WORSE	6	2	75.0%

• Games with relatively worse rush defenses have tended to go under, while those with better ones have gone over. Some of this result is likely related to the general trend that higher totals have gone under and lower totals have gone over. Most games featuring relatively poor rush defenses also feature high-scoring teams from the regular season.
• The three Super Bowls with the lowest offensive yards per carry also featured relatively good rush defenses by yards per carry allowed, so the offenses were incentivized to pass. Notably, the three longest touchdowns from scrimmage and four of the five touchdowns from scrimmage that have gone for more than 60 yards have come in games featuring better rush defenses.

2025 Analysis: With Kansas City at 4.1 and Philadelphia at 4.3 yards per rush allowed, this game falls in the middle tier of rush defenses for the Super Bowl.

Passing Offense

Here are the Super Bowl teams sorted by their combined average in net yards passing per attempt on offense:

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
COMBINED NYPA of 7.55+	1	2	33.3%
COMIBINED NYPA 7.05 to 7.50	4	4	50.0%
COMBINED NYPA 6.55 to 7.00	5	7	41.7%
COMBINED NYPA 6.50 or Less	5	1	83.3%

• The worst offenses by net passing yards have hit the over at a high rate. Is this a function of unexpected offense or defensive plays? Remember, points can also be scored by high-impact plays like turnovers. As it turns out, the answer is both.
• Some games went over because of defensive and special teams plays, even though at least one of the defenses played well. A few others turned into shootouts, where the offenses unexpectedly scored more than projected.
• The games where the teams averaged 6.50 or fewer net yards per pass attempt entering the game went over five of six times. They featured six defensive touchdowns and four special teams scores.
• Altogether, eight of the nine games with the worst combined passing offenses went over in the last 29 years.

2025 Analysis: Philadelphia is at 6.5 net yards per attempt (impacted negatively by the high sack rate) and Kansas City was only at 5.9 net yards per attempt, so this game ranks near the bottom in net yards per pass on offense among Super Bowls. These types of games have had a strong tendency to go Over (5-1 on the Over).

Passing Defense

Here are historical Super Bowls sorted by the combined average in net yards per passing attempt allowed on defense:

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
COMBINED NYPA ABOVE 6.00	2	4	33.3%
COMBINED NYPA 5.55 to 6.00	3	6	33.3%
COMBINED NYPA 5.50 or Less	10	4	71.4%

• Most teams that make the Super Bowl have at least a pretty good pass defense. In nearly half the games, the Super Bowl teams have averaged less than 5.5 net yards per attempt allowed. (For context, the Philadelphia Eagles were the only team below 5.5 net yards per pass attempt allowed this season, and Denver was second at 5.6.)
• Only two Super Bowl teams have given up more than 6.5 net yards per attempt in the season they made the Super Bowl: the 2011 Patriots and the 2018 Rams.
• The games involving the best passing defenses have had a slight tendency to go over, though some of them have featured some of the best quarterbacks of all time. One was John Elway versus Brett Favre, one involved Tom Brady in an unexpected shootout with Jake Delhomme, and another was the Bucs-Raiders game that went over because of defensive scores in a blowout.

2025 Analysis: The Eagles have the best pass defense numbers in the NFL this year, but overall this is a fairly average Super Bowl by pass defense efficiency, at 5,60 net yards per pass allowed combined.

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: Sack Rate and Turnover Margin

Finally, let’s examine Super Bowl over/under performance as it relates to a few stats that can significantly impact total scoring.

Offensive Sack Rate

Here’s a look at the average offensive sack rate for the two teams in the Super Bowl:

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
OFF SACK RATE OF 7.0% OR MORE	3	1	75.0%
OFF SACK RATE BETWEEN 6.0% AND 6.99%	5	3	62.5%
OFF SACK RATE BETWEEN 5.0% AND 5.99%	7	3	70.0%
OFF SACK RATE BETWEEN 4.0% to 4.99%	0	3	0.0%
OFF SACK RATE BELOW 4.0%	0	4	0.0%

• Generally speaking, offenses that take fewer sacks are higher scoring. Several of the game’s best quarterbacks can get rid of the ball and not take as many sacks.
• However, that high scoring has not manifested in recent Super Bowls when two teams with good sack rates face off. The eight games with the lowest combined sack rates have gone under the number, often with higher totals (the average over/under was 52.5 points).
• So, what happened? Generally, these games did not involve many turnovers. They averaged only 2.4 giveaways combined. They did have longer drives and fewer possessions between the two teams, but several unproductive long drives ended in turnovers on downs, field-goal attempts, or even missed field goals.
• Several started with long drives by plays but no payoff in the end zone. Six of the 14 teams in these games went on an eight-play or more opening drive, but only one scored a TD, two ended in a missed field goal, and another ended in a punt after eating up half the first quarter.
• Six of the eight games featuring low-sack-rate teams were also tight late, with the game in doubt in the final five minutes.

2025 Analysis: Because the Eagles have one of the highest sack rates in the NFL, and the Chiefs were closer to average and relatively higher in sack rate compared to a typical Mahomes season, this ranks as a Super Bowl with one of the highest sack rates for the offenses (7.75% combined). The other games with sack rates this high have gone over in three of the four games.

Turnover Margin

To examine the potential impact of turnovers on Super Bowl scoring, we’ll look at the combined turnover margin per game for the two participants.

For example, a team that averaged a +1.0 turnover margin (e.g. +18 net turnovers in 18 games played) and another that averaged +0.5 (+9 in 18 games) would count as a +1.5 turnover margin per game combined.

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
COMBINED TO MARGIN UNDER 1.00	3	6	33.3%
COMBINED TO MARGIN +1.00 TO +1.49	6	7	46.2%
COMBINED TO MARGIN +1.50 OR MORE	6	1	85.7%

• The six games between teams with the best-combined turnover margins ended up all going over, and they did so partly because of … you guessed it: turnovers.
• The seven Super Bowls with a +1.5 or higher turnover margin per game between the two teams featured an average of 4.6 turnovers. For comparison, all other Super Bowls since 1995 averaged 3.0 turnovers.
• Seven defensive touchdowns and five special teams touchdowns scored in those seven Super Bowls. One team won by at least 14 points in five of those seven games. (Only three of the 22 other games were decided by at least 14 points.)

2025 Analysis: Philadelphia was +11 and Kansas City +6 in the regular season, and so the combined +1.0 turnover margin per game is below average for Super Bowl teams.