Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: By Total, Pass/Rush Efficiency, Turnover Margin & More

Will Super Bowl LVIII go over or under the total points line? Some stat trends show surprising correlation to Super Bowl over/under results.

January 31, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

In this post, we’ll look at historical data trends regarding team performance against the Super Bowl over/under line (also known as the game total or total points line).

While you always need to be cautious when it comes to trend-based analysis, this information can be helpful for making an over/under pick for Super Bowl LVIII in 2024, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers.

Analysis Of Historical Super Bowl Over/Under Trends

The trends we will investigate include:

• How many Super Bowls have gone over vs. under the game total line, both overall and at various line values.
• Super Bowl game scoring based on the passing and rushing characteristics of the two teams involved.
• Total scoring in the Super Bowl based on how the opponents ranked in sack rate and turnover margin.

Super Bowl Over/Under Trends By Line Value

Here is a look at the last 28 Super Bowls, and how many games have gone over or under, with some observations below:

Category	Over	Under	Over Pct
All Point Totals	14	14	50.0%
O/U of 45 or Below	4	1	80.0%
O/U of 45.5 to 50	6	5	54.5%
O/U Above 50	4	8	33.3%
Spread 3 or less	6	4	60.0%
Spread 3.5 to 6	3	4	42.9%
Spread 6.5 or more	5	6	45.5%

• While there have been some streaks, the historical distribution of overs and unders is fairly even over this time period.
• However, the games with the lowest over/under lines have been higher scoring than the games with the highest over/under lines.
• There has not been a strong relationship between the expected total and actual scoring in the Super Bowl in the last 28 years.

Over/Under Trends By Passing and Rushing Stats

Next, let’s dig into several team-level passing and rushing stats to see how these characteristics related to Super Bowl totals and scoring.

Rushing Offense

Here’s a look at performance grouped by the average yards per carry (YPC) of the two Super Bowl teams combined.

While yards per carry is a “noisy” stat that can be skewed by big play luck, it still identifies teams that either made big plays or consistently gained yards versus those that didn’t.