Super Bowl Over/Under Trends: By Total, Pass/Rush Efficiency, Turnover Margin & More
Will Super Bowl LVII go over or under the total points line? Some stat trends show surprising correlation to Super Bowl over/under results.
January 31, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

DeVonta Smith could have a direct impact on the Super Bowl LVII total. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we’ll look at historical data trends regarding team performance against the Super Bowl over/under line (also known as the game total or total points scored line).
While you always need to be cautious when it comes to trend-based analysis, this information can be helpful for making an over/under pick for Super Bowl LVII in 2023, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Analysis Of Historical Super Bowl Over/Under Trends
The trends we will investigate include:
- How many Super Bowls have gone over vs. under the game total line, both overall and at various line values.
- Super Bowl game scoring based on the passing and rushing characteristics of the two teams involved.
- Total scoring in the Super Bowl based on how the opponents ranked in sack rate and turnover margin.
Super Bowl Over/Under Trends By Line Value
Here is a look at the last 27 Super Bowls, and how many games have gone over or under, with some observations below:
Category | Over | Under | Over Pct |
---|---|---|---|
All Point Totals | 13 | 14 | 48.1% |
O/U of 45 or Below | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
O/U of 45.5 to 50 | 6 | 5 | 54.5% |
O/U Above 50 | 3 | 8 | 27.3% |
Spread 3 or less | 5 | 4 | 55.6% |
Spread 3.5 to 6 | 3 | 4 | 42.9% |
Spread 6.5 or more | 5 | 6 | 45.5% |
- While there have been some streaks, the historical distribution of overs and unders is fairly even over this time period.
- However, the games with the lowest over/under lines have been higher scoring than the games with the highest over/under lines.
- There has not been a strong relationship between the expected total and actual scoring in the Super Bowl in the last 27 years.
Over/Under Trends By Passing and Rushing Stats
Next, let’s dig into several team-level passing and rushing stats to see how these characteristics related to Super Bowl totals and scoring.
Rushing Offense
Here’s a look at performance grouped by the average yards per carry (YPC) of the two Super Bowl teams combined.
While yards per carry is a “noisy” stat that can be skewed by big play luck, it still identifies teams that either made big plays or consistently gained yards versus those that didn’t.
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