Player Predictions for Super Bowl 57: Passing, Rushing, Yards, TDs, Receptions & More
Player predictions including rushing, passing, and receiving projections (e.g. attempts, yards, TDs) for Super Bowl 57: Chiefs vs. Eagles.
February 2, 2023 - by Jason Lisk
If Patrick Mahomes throws for one yard in the Super Bowl, you get to read this article for free (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
In this post, we provide our player predictions for Super Bowl 57, including statistical projections for passing, rushing and receiving.
The projections cover key skill-position players on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
Projected player stats can be used as a basis for evaluating Super Bowl prop bets involving, constructing daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineups, and more.
Player Predictions Methodology
As one might expect, we developed our Super Bowl player projections using a data-driven approach:
- Identifying historically similar Super Bowls based the respective team efficiency stats of each team, as well as betting market expectations for the game (e.g. the point spread and and over/under lines).
- Analyzing the results of the most similar opponent matchups from the 2022-23 season for both the Chiefs and Eagles.
- Transforming the resulting team-level stat projections into individual player projections based on 2022 player stats, recent performance and usage rates, defensive matchup adjustments, and injury news.
Super Bowl 57 Player Predictions Menu
Here are quick links to the player projections by stat grouping, with a few notes in each section.
Note that we intentionally organized these projections the way that many sportsbooks organize their prop bet menus, as opposed to by player position.
Passing and Quarterback Predictions For Super Bowl 57
Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes Projections: Pass Attempts, Completions, Yards, TDs, INTs
- Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards, with 5,250 in the regular season, but is going against the team that is 1st overall in net passing yards allowed.
- The Eagles have rarely played from behind, which impacts pass distributions, but this is the lowest spread that they have had in a game where Jalen Hurts has started all season.
Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes Passing TD Distributions
Some sportsbooks offer various props on alternative over/under lines for passing touchdowns. Here are our projections for passing touchdown distributions based on similar games plus distributions for similar touchdown averages.
|First||Last||0 TD||1 TD||2 TD||3 TD||4+ TD|
- To compare to various pass touchdown props at over/under lines, you would want to add up the percentages below and above the line.
- For example, we would project Mahomes with a 61.8 percent chance (10.9 percent for zero TDs + 24.1 percent for one TD + 26.8 percent for two TDs) of going under 2.5 pass TDs and a 38.2 percent chance of going over.
Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes Interception (INT) Distributions
|First||Last||0 INT||1 INT||2+ INT|
- In the last 13 Super Bowls, 17 of the 26 starting quarterbacks have thrown at least one interception, and seven of them threw two interceptions.
- Winning quarterbacks threw at least one interception in seven of the last 13 Super Bowls, including Stafford throwing two last year.
- The quarterback on the losing team threw at least one interception in 10 of the last 13 Super Bowls.
- Fun fact: the last Super Bowl with zero interceptions thrown was Rams vs. Titans after the 1999 season.
- Super Bowl interceptions have had little relationship to the rate at which the QBs threw interceptions in the regular season. In fact, 80% of the quarterbacks who had an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in the regular season threw a pick (Jalen Hurts was at 1.3% this season).