Thursday Night Football: Picks for Broncos at Browns (Week 7 2021)

Picks, odds, trends, and injury news for the 2021 Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.

October 21, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Thursday Night Football in Week 7 features two teams that look a lot worse than they did a few weeks ago.

Cleveland comes into this game in rough shape. Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield will miss the game, so veteran journeyman Case Keenum will get the start. The offensive unit will also be missing several other starters, including star RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

For Denver, the optimism of a 3-0 start has faded away after three straight defeats. The Broncos now face a short week dealing with their own issues.

Both of these teams come in at 3-3, tied with several other teams for seventh place in the AFC right now. So this game could matter a lot by the end of the season when it comes to tiebreakers.

Thursday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Cleveland (-1.0) vs. Denver (Opened at -5.0)

Over/Under: 40.5 points (Opened at 43.5)

Moneyline: Cleveland -120; Denver +100

Key Injuries: For Cleveland, QB Baker Mayfield is out, as are RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the two leading rushers. For Denver, LB Alexander Johnson, second on the team in tackles, was placed on IR with a torn pectoral. (Full injury report)

Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions

We are 12-9 so far this year with our prime-time picks, after hitting both the over and Titans +6 on Monday. Here are a few that look interesting for Browns/Broncos:

1. Denver/Cleveland OVER 40.5

The injuries and Baker Mayfield being ruled out has resulted in the point total dropping over the course of the week, but it may not be fully warranted.

Wind is usually a factor in Cleveland, but everything is relative. In the last 10 games where the daily average wind speed was 15 mph or higher (according to Pro Football Reference), the over is 7-3. And that includes last year’s 16-6 game against the Raiders, which was played in horrible conditions and extreme 35 mph wind.

The forecast for tonight is a west wind around 20 miles per hour. That isn’t a crosswind for the east/west stadium alignment, but will instead be behind or into the wind depending on the quarter for each team. Crosswinds are far more deadly for overs when it comes to ruining passing games.

All of this is to say that the recent history in Cleveland is for higher-scoring games than expected as long as the conditions aren’t extreme. Add in that the Browns don’t have their top two running backs, and it could increase their passing distribution. Our models also see slight over value at this low number.

2. Case Keenum OVER 217.5 Passing Yards

At less than 220 yards, the prop line on Keenum’s passing yard total is very low. Yes, the injuries to Chubb and Hunt could impact his efficiency. But those injuries also might change how the Browns call plays.

Baker Mayfield has averaged 30.0 passing attempts over the last two seasons with head coach Kevin Stefanski calling plays. The Browns have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL once you account for game situation. But they will also be without their top two running backs tonight.

Our internal player modeling based on expected points scored and allowed also sees some value on the over. The average passing yards projection for a team with 20.75 expected points that’s favored by a point is 230.5.

3. Melvin Gordon III OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards

Teddy Bridgewater threw three interceptions last week, the most he has thrown in a game since the second start of his rookie year in 2014. That could mean potential value on more conservatism and checking down in response.

Gordon has at least 17 receiving yards in four of six games this season. He could play a bigger role in this game if Bridgewater is gunshy after last week’s meltdown.

BetIQ NFL Model Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Browns & Broncos Betting Trends

• Home-Field Advantage? So far this season, home teams favored by less than a field goal are only 2-8 SU and ATS.
• Just in Case: Case Keenum is making a start for his sixth franchise (including this week’s opponent, Denver). He’s 28-36 SU and 30-29-3 ATS as a starter.
• Broncos in Low-Scoring Contests: There have been eight other games this season with an over/under of 42.0 or lower, and Denver has been involved in three of them. Their games against the Giants and Jets went under the respective lines, while their game against Pittsburgh went over.

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some sportsbook promotions available for Thursday Night Football in Week 7:

BetMGM

• Moneyline bet is paid out as a winner if team is up by 10+ points at halftime

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

• See Caesars Sportsbook site for TNF game promos and player prop boosts.

DraftKings

• Place a Same Game Parlay on any NFL game, and if your bet loses, DraftKings will credit your bet back up to $25!

FanDuel

• Place a 3+ Leg same game parlay wager with cash on any “Week 7” NFL game taking place from 10/21 – 10/25 and if your bet loses, get a refund in site credit. Max refund $10.

PointsBet

• See PointsBet site for TNF game promos and player prop boosts.