Thursday Night Football: Picks for Eagles vs. Buccaneers (Week 6 2021)

Picks, odds, trends, and news for the 2021 Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.

October 14, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Tom Brady and Mike Evans, not socially distant from the end zone (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Fresh off a league-high 558 total yards in their blowout win over Miami, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like Super Bowl contenders again. They’ll now travel to Philadelphia for their second Thursday matchup of the year after facing the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL opener.

The Eagles are also coming off an upset win against the Carolina Panthers, which moved them to 2-3 on the season. They’ll need to have a better defensive showing Thursday than they had against the other two top offenses they faced earlier this season, as they gave up over 40 points to both the Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs.

Thursday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-7.0) at Philadelphia (Opened at -6.5)

Over/Under: 52.5 points (Opened at 53.0)

Moneyline: Tampa Bay -300; Philadelphia +250

Key Injuries: Tampa Bay- Rob Gronkowski is out, and LB Lavonte David is expected to miss the game as well; Philadelphia- TE Dallas Goedert is on the COVID-19/Reserve List  (Full injury report)

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Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions

We are 9-6 so far this year with our prime-time picks. Here are a few that look interesting for Bucs/Eagles:

Tampa Bay (-7)

Tom Brady has feasted in Tampa Bay against weaker opposing defenses. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense gave up over 9.0 yards per pass attempt to both Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes earliest this season.

The experienced Bucs also draw a first-year coach in Nick Sirianni who’s facing his first short-rest Thursday game.

As we note in our betting trends below, larger Thursday favorites have had success recently. Teams favored by a touchdown or more have won 21 straight games outright and gone 16-5 ATS.

Tom Brady Over 302.5 Passing Yards

Brady has thrown for at least 375 yards in three of his five games this year. He’s coming off a 411-yard, five-touchdown performance, and the Bucs are expected to score around 30 points in this one.

Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans are all available, and the Eagles defense has been vulnerable to big plays.

Leonard Fournette to Score TD (+100)

Fournette has only one touchdown on the year, but he’s moved into the lead role in Tampa Bay this year, is easily leading the team in rushing yards and attempts, and also averaging nearly four receptions per game.

In similar matchups, 70 percent of the favorites scored at least one rushing touchdown (34 percent scored multiple). In their two matchups against elite quarterbacks this year, the Eagles gave up an average of 155 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to opposing backs.

Adding in Fournette’s involvement in the passing game, and he could score in this matchup either on the ground or in the air.

BetIQ NFL Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Eagles & Bucs Betting Trends

  • Brady and the Bucs in Favored Role: Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay is 14-0 SU and 8-6 ATS when favored by five or more points. Ten of the 14 games have gone over.
  • Eagles and Hurts: Jalen Hurts has now been an underdog in all but one of his NFL starts, going 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in that role.
  • Tampa Bay in Higher-Scoring Totals Games: Over the last two years, when the over/under is 50 or more, Tampa Bay is 10-3 SU and ATS, with six overs and seven unders.
  • Thursday Favorites: The last time a team lost as a favorite of seven or more points when playing on short rest on Thursday was back in 2015 (Green Bay Packers against Chicago Bears). Since then, teams in that role have gone 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS.

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some sportsbook promotions available for Thursday Night Football in Week 6:

BetMGM

  • Moneyline bet is paid out as a winner if team is up by 10+ points at halftime

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

  • Tom Brady Over 249.5 Passing Yards & Over 1.5 Passing TDs in Buccaneers Win BOOSTED to +100

DraftKings

  • Place a Same Game Parlay on any NFL game, and if your bet loses, DraftKings will credit your bet back up to $25!

FanDuel

The following offer is for new FanDuel Sportsbook users only.

  • TNF: Buccaneers vs. Eagles – Bet $5, Win $150 on either team to win the game (30/1 odds)

PointsBet

  • Tom Brady 300+ total yards and 2+ TDs BOOSTED to +130 (see site for all NFL boosts)