Thursday Night Football: Picks for Jets at Colts (Week 9 2021)

Picks, odds, trends, and injury news for the 2021 Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets.

November 4, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The Thursday Night Football Week 9 matchup involves Sunday’s surprise star going against a team in need of a big win after a crushing division loss.

The New York Jets provided the biggest upset of the year so far when QB Mike White made his first start and threw for over 400 yards, rolling them to a 34-31 win over the Bengals.

The Indianapolis Colts jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Titans, but they lost the game in overtime after a crushing interception by Carson Wentz. So if you go off last week’s results, the Jets could be surging. But will that be the case?

Thursday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Indianapolis (-10.0) vs. New York Jets (Opened at -10.5)

Over/Under: 45.0 points (Opened at 47.0)

Moneyline: Indianapolis -510; NY Jets +411

Key Injuries: For New York, WR Corey Davis missed the last game and is doubtful for this one; Indianapolis will be without WR T.Y. Hilton, who left the last game with a concussion, and G Quenton Nelson is questionable with a toe injury. (Full injury report)

Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions

Here are the picks that stand out to us for the Colts/Jets game:

1. Mike White UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards

Mike White is coming off throwing for over 400 passing yards against Cincinnati. The total in this game is only 45 points, though.

With the Jets again a double-digit underdog, this line might be a bit high because of an overreaction to one game.

There have been 12 other games in the last month where the starting QB’s team was expected to score fewer than 20 points and they were an underdog of more than seven points. The median passing-yard over/under for those quarterbacks was 226.5, with the games going six overs and six unders.

Our market-based model similarly has this one at 222.5 passing yards.

Maybe there is a market inefficiency here, and the passing-yard prop market is sharper than the overall betting market. But if you expect White to pass for over 250 yards in this one, the Jets should not be a huge underdog and should not be expected to score fewer than 18 points.

2. Indy/Jets UNDER 45 points 

We will play a bit against the Mike White hype, and with the line movement downward to the point total, take the under. All of our models also give a slight under lean to the total.

3. Carson Wentz OVER 244.5 Passing Yards

Unlike White’s total, Carson Wentz’s total is actually low for the quarterback on a team favored by more than a touchdown. It’s also slightly lower than White’s passing over/under.

There’s a misperception that quarterbacks on bad teams tend to throw for more yards than quarterbacks on favored teams.

There have been 26 other games this year where one team was favored by more than a touchdown. The quarterback on the favored team has thrown for more yards 18 times, the underdog quarterback has thrown for more yards seven times (including White last week), and there has been one push.

We’ll go against that conventional wisdom and take the over for Wentz here. The favored QB has passed for a median of 275 yards in those big-spread games so far this year.

BetIQ NFL Model Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Colts & Jets Betting Trends

• Thursday Favorites: The last time a team lost as a favorite of seven or more points when playing on short rest on Thursday was back in 2015 (Green Bay Packers against Chicago Bears). Since then, teams in that role have gone 22-0 SU and 16-6 ATS. (Arizona lost as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 8 of this year.)
• New York Jets and the Big Upset: The Jets are the first team since 2015 (Baltimore, Weeks 16 and 17) to win a game as a double-digit favorite and turn around and be a double-digit underdog again the next week.
• Big Upset Aftermath: Over the last two years, 10 other teams have won outright as an underdog of more than seven points. They are 3-7 SU and ATS in the next game played.

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some sportsbook promotions available for Thursday Night Football in Week 9:

BetMGM

• Moneyline bet is paid out as a winner if team is up by 10+ points at halftime

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

• Risk Free Same Game Parlay! Get up to a $25 Risk Free Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football, must be 3+ legs and have odds that are +300 or longer. 

DraftKings

• Place a $20+, 4+ Leg parlay wager with cash on any College Football and/or NFL games taking place from 11/4 through 11/8 and get a $10 site credit bonus win or lose!

FanDuel

• Place a 3+ Leg same game parlay wager with cash on any “Week 9” NFL game taking place from 11/4 – 11/8 and if your bet loses, get a refund in site credit. Max refund $10.

PointsBet

• See PointsBet site for TNF game promos and player prop boosts.