Thursday Night Football: Picks for Ravens at Dolphins (Week 10 2021)

Picks, odds, trends, and injury news for the 2021 Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins.

November 11, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The Thursday Night Football Week 10 matchup sees Lamar Jackson and the Ravens return to the scene where his breakout season began.

In Week 1 of the 2019 season, Jackson threw for five touchdown passes as the Ravens beat the Dolphins 59-10. He went on to win the NFL MVP award that season while leading Baltimore to an AFC-best 14-2 record.

Meanwhile, Miami has gone full circle in the last two years. The Dolphins were terrible at the start of the 2019 season, came within a game of the playoffs last year, but they’re now struggling again at 2-7.

Can Jackson put up another elite performance in Miami? Or will the Dolphins turn their disappointing season around?

Thursday Night Football Betting Details

Point Spread: Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami (Opened at -7.5)

Over/Under: 46.5 points (Opened at 47.0)

Moneyline: Baltimore -357; Miami +302

Key Injuries: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa missed the last game with a finger injury and is doubtful to play in this one after a short week (Full injury report)

Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions

Here are the picks that stand out to us for the Ravens/Dolphins game:

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Miami hasn’t made a final decision on Tagovailoa, though it looks like Jacoby Brissett will start. Either way, Baltimore has a significant passing advantage in this one.

While the Dolphins are coming off a win over the Houston Texans, they had five turnovers and scored only 17 points in that win. They won thanks to four Houston turnovers, one of which directly led to a Miami touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Ravens offense has been rolling. They rallied to beat the Minnesota Vikings in overtime last week with an impressive 500 yards of total offense, overcoming two turnovers (and none created).

Brissett has a career 8.0 percent sack rate and 6.4 career yards per attempt, which means he tends to be conservative and will take sacks. That’s a bad fit against a Ravens defense that likes to attack and bring pressure.

Lamar Jackson OVER 233.5 Passing Yards

Jackson has been a value play all year on passing yards. He has topped this number in seven of his eight starts this season.

The Ravens aren’t a run-heavy team in 2021. In fact, they are right around league average in “Pass Rate Over Expectation.” Jackson is averaging 33 passing attempts and 12 rushing attempts per game.

Based on the expected score and spread, you would expect a typical QB on the favorite to have a total around 266, so there’s some value room here even if Baltimore plays with a lead.

Mark Andrews OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards

Let’s pair Jackson’s passing-yards over with one of his top targets.

According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are allowing 77.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which ranks third leaguewide. They haven’t played a particularly tough schedule of opposing tight ends, either, facing only Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts among upper-tier tight ends.

Mark Andrews has averaged only 46.0 yards and made eight catches on 17 targets in the last two weeks, but that was going against two teams that rank in the top 10 in yards allowed to tight ends all year (Minnesota and Cincinnati). Prior to those matchups, he had hit over 50 receiving yards in five straight games.

Given the Dolphins’ struggles covering tight ends, there’s value on a bounce-back night for Andrews.

BetIQ NFL Model Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value

Ravens & Dolphins Betting Trends

• Thursday Favorites: The last time a team lost as a favorite of seven or more points when playing on short rest on Thursday was back in 2015 (Green Bay Packers against Chicago Bears). Since then, teams in that role have gone 23-0 SU and 17-6 ATS. (Arizona lost as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 8 of this year.)
• Dolphins Against the Best: The Dolphins are 0-3 with a minus-78 point differential in three games against Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and 2-4 with a minus-9 point differential against everyone else.
• Baltimore’s Wild Point-Swing Ride: Every Ravens game has finished at least 9.5 points away from the over/under line, with five of eight going over. Six of their eight games have seen at least one team score 31 or more points.

Sportsbook Promos

Here are some sportsbook promotions available for Thursday Night Football in Week 10:

BetMGM

• Moneyline bet is paid out as a winner if team is up by 10+ points at halftime

Caesars

Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV

• New Accounts: Bet $10, get $100 if your team scores a point.

DraftKings

• Get a boost for No Score First Drive in the Ravens vs. Dolphins game

FanDuel

• Place a $20+, 4+ Leg parlay wager with cash on any College Football and/or NFL games taking place from 11/11 through 11/15 and get a $10 site credit bonus win or lose!

PointsBet

• See PointsBet site for TNF game promos and player prop boosts.