Top NFL Player Props for 2021

Which players do we like to go over or under their player prop totals in yards, catches, or touchdowns? Find out with our favorite props.

September 1, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Player props are a growing area in the sports betting space. This year, we’re providing some of our top NFL player props based on our 2021 stat projections.

Last year, we introduced our fantasy football projections for the first time. They were based on projecting average outcomes using models like similar player results, average draft position data, and team usage trends. They also incorporated team projections built on looking at how similar teams had performed in the past, using betting market data like expected win totals. You can read more about what went into those projections here.

How Last Year’s Player Projections Did

Our projections should theoretically work well for season-long prop bets. They were conservative and incorporated injury risk into the outcomes.

In the first season, the results were promising. We collected DraftKings’ closing season-prop yardage lines and compared them to our projected totals. For players where our yardage projection was more than 100 yards different than the DraftKings player prop total, betting in the direction of our projection would have gone 29-15.

In thirty-five of the 44 cases where we differed, we were under the projected total by more than 100 yards. As with plenty of other betting markets, there is likely some value in leaning toward the unders, as a lot of square bettors wager on the best-case scenarios or support players they like.

Let’s turn to the 2021 totals and see where we our projections differ compared to the player prop markets.

2021 NFL Player Props

All the player totals listed below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. You might find different totals or payout odds at other books and should always shop for your best number.

If you do want to play any of these or your own favorite player props and sign up at DraftKings as a new customer, you get a deposit bonus of 20%, up to $1,000, on your first deposit.

QB Jared Goff, Detroit UNDER 3995.5 Passing Yards (-115)

BetIQ Projection: 3,545 Passing Yards

Conventional wisdom suggests quarterbacks on bad teams will rack up passing yardage because they are often trailing. While that may be true for some passers on overall average teams with bad defenses, it hasn’t held up recently when looking at quarterbacks on the teams with the lowest projected win totals.

Going back to the 2008 season, there have been 16 teams with a projected win total of 5.0 or less. If we pro-rate to a 17-game season, Cam Newton was the only quarterback from those teams who went over 3995.5 passing yards (as a rookie on the 2011 Carolina Panthers).

Detroit might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL this year. Their top candidates to start are two young, unproven receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Quintez Ciphus) and two veterans who have either never panned out (Breshad Perriman) or are coming off an injury and haven’t had a 1,000-yard season since 2016. (Tyrell Williams).

Tight end T.J. Hockenson projects to be the leading receiver. Goff does not seem likely to throw the ball all over the field. Add in the risk of injuries and Detroit eventually trying out another quarterback in a lost season, and there are several outs with the under here.

TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas OVER 1050.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

BetIQ Projection: 1,186 Receiving Yards

Darren Waller proved his breakout 2019 campaign was no fluke, as he went over 1,100 receiving yards for the second year in a row. In doing so, he joined elite company.

Here is the full list of tight ends that have consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at age 27 and 28:

• Darren Waller (2019-2020)
• Travis Kelce (2016-2017)
• Jason Witten (2009-2010)
• Todd Christensen (1983-1984)

Shannon Sharpe just missed the list because he missed three games at age 27. Tony Gonzalez and Ozzie Newsome also just missed.

The point is, these guys weren’t flukes. They held their value well into the late 20s, and we’ll take a chance on Waller doing the same.

There’s also some potential value here on yards relative to receptions. Waller’s prop total on receptions is 95.5, which is close to our projection for him (96). But his implied yards per catch is 11.0, which would be even lower than last year’s 11.2 yards per catch.

In 2019, Waller averaged 12.7 yards per catch, and he could see positive regression in that category. If so, that gives you some value on yards.

Waller is still in the same offense. He’s the Raiders’ primary guy with question marks at wide receiver, even if one of the young players emerges. The defense still projects as being near the bottom of the league, which should favor shootouts.

You always battle the risk of injury on overs, but Waller is similar to a blue-chip stock in that elite receiving tight ends tend to hold value well.

RB Chris Carson, Seattle UNDER 1000.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

BetIQ Projection: 854 Rushing Yards

On the other hand, Chris Carson is an under lean because of his age and production last year.

Based on his current spot on Seattle’s depth chart and competition, you might be tempted by the over. If you were guaranteed Carson at age 24 and 25 when he was an undervalued player, that would be the case. But Carson is coming off a year in which he battled injuries, and his rushing yards dropped by more than 20 per game compared to the previous two seasons.

There is a misconception that running backs fall off a cliff at a specific age. Instead, you should trust productive running backs until they have a downturn in production. Carson finished last year as the RB16 in standard scoring and the RB19 in PPR, but he scored TDs at the highest rate of his career to offset the decline in rushing volume.

Here’s a list of backs since 1990 who had more than 900 rushing yards at both age 24 and 25 and then fell off by more than 20 yards per game at age 26:

• Travis Henry
• Tatum Bell
• Julius Jones
• Napoleon Kaufman
• Errict Rhett

None of those backs approached 1,000 rushing yards at age 27.

Ray Rice also makes the list, but his career ended at that age for different reasons. Le’Veon Bell didn’t play at age 26 because of his holdout in Pittsburgh, and he then fell off after signing with the Jets. Ahmad Bradshaw, Lamar Miller, and Ryan Mathews also had similar production to Carson from ages 24 to 26.

Carson doesn’t have some of the traits that tend to age well at the position—namely, elite pass-catching ability—and he already showed some injury and production concerns last year.

WR Robert Woods, LA Rams OVER 995.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

BetIQ Projection: 1,169 Receiving Yards

Woods is a yardage value play with the switch from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford under center this year.

Woods hauled in 90 receptions in each of the past two seasons, but his yardage dropped from 1,134 in 2019 to 936 last year. Meanwhile, fellow starter Cooper Kupp went from averaging 12.4 yards per reception in 2019 to 10.6 last season.

Goff struggled to throw downfield, which likely influenced the Rams’ decision to trade for Stafford.

Woods has a 92.5 reception total in the betting props market, which results in an implied 10.8 yards per catch when you compare it to his 995.5 yard total. That’s only slightly higher than his massive drop in yards per catch from last year.

Our projection for Woods’ reception total is similar to the market, but we expect more positive regression in his receiving yardage, and a bump in his yards per catch, with Stafford throwing to him in 2021.

WR Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia UNDER 675.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

BetIQ Projection: 448 Receiving Yards

Jalen Reagor suffered a thumb injury early in his rookie season that cost him five games, and he never got on track after his return. He never topped more than 55 yards in a single game, and he hit that mark on a single catch in the season opener.

The history of first-round receivers with Reagor’s production level as a rookie isn’t great. Additionally, the Eagles are now moving to a running quarterback in Jalen Hurts, have a new coaching staff, and just spent a top 10 pick on another receiver in DeVonta Smith.

It’s difficult to trust Reagor to have anything more than a middling season as a low-end starter on a low-passing-volume offense. He is more at risk of losing his starting job and/or snaps after the preseason emergence of fellow wideout Quez Watkins.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco OVER 67.5 Receptions (-115), 875.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

BetIQ Projection: 78 Receptions, 1,070 Receiving Yards

Like Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk missed a few games with injuries as a rookie. Unlike Reagor, he flashed the kind of potential that often portends a second-year breakout.

After missing the first game of the year, Aiyuk showed off his athleticism in Weeks 3 and 4 with dynamic touchdown runs. He later went on a six-game stretch in which he averaged over 90 receiving yards per game, catching passes from all three quarterbacks on the roster. That stretch was interrupted by a stint on the COVID-19 reserve list and ended by a late-season injury.

Aiyuk did benefit from some lost time for both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel last year. However, he showed No. 1 receiver upside and should now have better overall offensive stability and QB play this season. Nick Mullens was responsible for the majority of his receptions last year, whereas he’ll be catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance in 2021.

We’ll bank on the talent that Aiyuk showed as a rookie and project a breakout season on a team expected to contend again in the NFC West. There is value on both his receptions and yardage props.

RB Mike Davis, Atlanta UNDER 850.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

BetIQ Projection: 733 Rushing Yards

There’s plenty of optimism about Mike Davis this year in fantasy, but we’re going contrarian here.

Davis started 12 games for the Carolina Panthers last year in place of injured star Christian McCaffrey and finished with 1,015 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. He didn’t have great efficiency numbers, though, as he finished with only 3.9 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per catch.

He’s now heading into his age-28 season as a lead back for the first time in his career. And new Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was previously the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, where he led an offense that produced huge rushing numbers with Derrick Henry.

However, Atlanta’s personnel strengths on offense are in the passing game, with a veteran pocket passer in Matt Ryan, star wideout Calvin Ridley and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. Davis might be more of a dual threat than Henry, but his efficiency is nowhere close.

If Davis can hold the starting role all year and stay healthy, he should hit the over, but those are big ifs. The current total would be a career high for him in rushing, and he would need at least 230 rushing attempts if he performs at his career average of 3.7 yards per carry.

WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami UNDER 750.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

BetIQ Projection: 636 Receiving Yards

Over the last 20 years, here’s the number of times that top-10 rookie wide receivers have gone over 700 yards receiving, based on their age:

• 21 years old: 4 of 7
• 22 years old: 4 of 14
• 23+ years old: 2 of 7

Waddle turns 23 in November and is on the older end of the rookie receiver spectrum. He also faces plenty of competition for touches in a Miami offense that does not project as a high-volume passing game, even if it does take a step forward with QB Tua Tagovailoa in his second year.

Miami added WR Will Fuller this offseason, has a potential every-down back in Myles Gaskin, and still has both WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki. Waddle could have a solid rookie season, be a part of that rotation and still not hit that over because of the competition for touches.

Add in the age factor and how it related to breakouts at the position, and we’ll be conservative here.

RB Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers UNDER 825.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

BetIQ Projection: 681 Rushing Yards

Austin Ekeler is a talented back who can be a major weapon in the Alvin Kamara mold. Taking the under on his rushing total is more of a commentary on the type of back he is.

Ekeler could break out with a big rushing season, but so far, there hasn’t been a big push to make him a workhorse back. He has more receiving yards (2,079) than rushing yards (1,901) for his career.

Last season, he was finally in the position to be the Chargers’ workhorse back with Melvin Gordon III gone. He started the year with 35 carries in the first two games, the most he ever had in a two-game stretch in his career, but he broke down two games later and went on IR.

The Chargers have a new coaching staff, so it’s unclear exactly how they’ll use Ekeler. But he seems most dangerous when utilized heavily as a receiver and all-around back while giving some short-yardage and between-the-tackle carries to some backups.

We are projecting Ekeler to be used similar to his past splits. He should have plenty of receiving value but go under this rushing total as the Chargers limit his carries to keep him fresh and healthy.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit UNDER 8.5 Rushing TDs (-140)

BetIQ Projection: 5.8 Rushing TDs 

We ordinarily prefer yardage props to touchdown props because touchdowns are rare events and a few outlier plays or one game can decide the outcome. We’ll make an exception for the D’Andre Swift total.

Swift scored eight rushing touchdowns last year on only 114 carries, so you can understand why this year’s total would be set just above that. But that TD rate was an anomaly for a back with that number of touches. Since 1990, there have been only 20 running backs who have scored eight or more rushing touchdowns in a season where they had 120 or fewer total carries.

The Lions’ overall projection plays a role here, too. Similar to our stance on Goff’s passing yardage above, Swift’s touchdown total is too optimistic for a back on a team expected to be among the league’s worst.

Since 2002, 26 teams have had a win total of 5.0 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4.5 wins entering this year despite now having 17 games instead of 16.

Only two backs on those teams scored more than eight rushing touchdowns, and four others scored exactly eight rushing touchdowns. Those two backs were Michael Turner on the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, and LaDainian Tomlinson on the 2004 San Diego Chargers. Both of those teams surprised to win double-digit games and reach the playoffs.

If you expect the Lions to be another surprise, you would be better off wagering on some long-shot playoff plays. If you think Detroit is appropriately priced as being near the bottom of the league, Swift’s rushing touchdown total is not likely to be high.

Swift can still be a solid fantasy choice (he’s RB13 in our PPR rankings) even if he fails to hit that rushing touchdown total.