BetIQ Daily: Week 13 NFL Picks, Including Lions vs. Vikings Spread and Rams vs. Jaguars Over/Under Pick
Picks for Sunday NFL Week 13 include a Lions vs. Vikings spread pick, a Rams-Jaguars total play, and a Teddy Bridgewater prop.
December 5, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
The Lions may be winless, but they have been profitable ATS (Steven King/Icon Sportswire)
Sunday, December 5 (#12)
Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.
This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, and will have the upcoming bowl game picks for college football after matchups are set today.
See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.
3 Picks for Sunday
1) Detroit +7 (vs. Minnesota) – NFL Spread Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- One of four playable spread picks on Sunday, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
- Featured as one of our moneyline upset picks for Week 13.
- Detroit is 6-1 ATS when an underdog of six points or more this season.
- Minnesota is 32nd in yards per carry allowed.
2) Jaguars/Rams Under 47.5 – NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Our highest-rated over/under play on Sunday.
- Decision Tree and Similar Games models both see value on the under.
- Jacksonville has allowed 333 or fewer total yards in last five games after allowing 412 yards per game in first six.
- The Rams have had their three lowest yards totals of the year in their last three losses.
- Rams WR Odell Beckham Jr. and RB Darrell Henderson Jr. are both questionable to play.
3) Teddy Bridgewater Under 247.5 Passing Yards
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
- Our passing projection for Bridgewater is 223.9, offering nearly 24 yards of value.
- You can see our full projections for all quarterbacks in Friday’s BetIQ Daily.
- Our betting models also have an under lean and a lean on the Broncos +9.5, both of which could slightly reduce passing totals.
- The Broncos will likely try to control possession with a balanced rushing attack to limit KC’s opportunities.
- Kansas City’s pass defense has played significantly better over the last month after getting key players healthy.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 37-26-1 (59%, +7.7 units)
- College football over/under picks: 173-142-3 (55%, +15.3 units)
- NBA spread picks: 13-7 (65%, +4.8 units)
To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.
We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.
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