Week 4 NFL Betting Trend: Keep Targeting Winless Teams ATS?
Since 2010, winless Week 4 teams are 31-17-1 (64.6%) against the spread vs. a team with at least one win. The road split is even better.
by Spencer Limbach - Sep 22, 2025
(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
By Week 4, we usually have a solid read on where teams are headed, especially those that start 0–3. The question is whether the market is pricing those winless teams too low. To find out, we examine how winless teams perform against the spread in Week 4 when they face opponents with at least one win. Here’s what we found:
Week 4 Winless Teams Against the Spread (Since 2010)
We looked at every Week 4 matchup since 2010 where a winless team faced an opponent with at least one victory. The goal was simple: track how those winless teams performed against the spread.
Results since 2010:
- Overall ATS: 31–17–1 (64.6%)
- Home ATS: 9–8–0 (52.9%)
- Road ATS: 21–8–1 (72.4%)
There’s a strong trend here: winless teams in Week 4 have covered at a healthy rate, and teams on the road have been especially strong.
The Full List Since 2010
Since 2010, we have found 49 instances in which a winless team has faced a team with at least one win in Week 4. We then pulled up the closing line (per BetIQ custom trends tool) and filtered the data to this list:
| Date | Team | Opponent | Week | Location | Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline | Score | Margin | Ats W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | Cincinnati | Carolina | 4 | Away | -4.5 | 46.5 | -225 | 34-24 | 10 | Win |
| 2024-09-29 | Jacksonville | Houston | 4 | Away | 5.0 | 44.5 | 205 | 20-24 | -4 | Win |
| 2024-09-30 | Tennessee | Miami | 4 | Away | 2.5 | 38.0 | 136 | 31-12 | 19 | Win |
| 2023-10-01 | Houston | Pittsburgh | 4 | Home | 3.0 | 41.5 | 130 | 30-6 | 24 | Win |
| 2023-10-01 | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | 4 | Away | 6.5 | 49.0 | 235 | 17-24 | -7 | Loss |
| 2021-09-30 | Jacksonville | Cincinnati | 4 | Away | 7.5 | 46.5 | 282 | 21-24 | -3 | Win |
| 2021-10-03 | Detroit | Chicago | 4 | Away | 3.0 | 41.5 | 130 | 14-24 | -10 | Loss |
| 2021-10-03 | Indianapolis | Miami | 4 | Away | 2.5 | 42.0 | 125 | 27-17 | 10 | Win |
| 2021-10-03 | NY Giants | New Orleans | 4 | Away | 7.5 | 42.5 | 280 | 27-21 | 6 | Win |
| 2021-10-03 | NY Jets | Tennessee | 4 | Home | 5.5 | 44.5 | 205 | 27-24 | 3 | Win |
| 2020-10-04 | Cincinnati | Jacksonville | 4 | Home | -1.0 | 49.5 | -120 | 33-25 | 8 | Win |
| 2020-10-04 | NY Giants | LA Rams | 4 | Away | 13.5 | 49.0 | 641 | 9-17 | -8 | Win |
| 2020-10-04 | Philadelphia | San Francisco | 4 | Away | 8.0 | 45.5 | 286 | 25-20 | 5 | Win |
| 2020-10-05 | Atlanta | Green Bay | 4 | Away | 5.0 | 56.5 | 197 | 16-30 | -14 | Loss |
| 2019-09-29 | Miami | LA Chargers | 4 | Home | 14.5 | 43.5 | 570 | 10-30 | -20 | Loss |
| 2019-09-29 | Washington | NY Giants | 4 | Away | 3.0 | 48.0 | 150 | 3-24 | -21 | Loss |
| 2019-09-29 | Arizona | Seattle | 4 | Home | 5.5 | 49.0 | 208 | 10-27 | -17 | Loss |
| 2019-09-29 | Denver | Jacksonville | 4 | Home | -2.5 | 37.0 | -137 | 24-26 | -2 | Loss |
| 2018-09-30 | Houston | Indianapolis | 4 | Away | -1.0 | 48.5 | -113 | 37-34 | 3 | Win |
| 2018-09-30 | Oakland | Cleveland | 4 | Home | -2.5 | 44.5 | -140 | 45-42 | 3 | Win |
| 2018-09-30 | Arizona | Seattle | 4 | Home | 3.5 | 40.0 | 169 | 17-20 | -3 | Win |
| 2017-10-01 | San Francisco | Arizona | 4 | Away | 6.5 | 43.0 | 225 | 15-18 | -3 | Win |
| 2017-10-01 | LA Chargers | Philadelphia | 4 | Home | -2.0 | 48.0 | -126 | 24-26 | -2 | Loss |
| 2017-10-01 | NY Giants | Tampa Bay | 4 | Away | 2.5 | 46.0 | 125 | 23-25 | -2 | Win |
| 2016-10-02 | Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 4 | Neutral | 1.0 | 48.0 | -110 | 30-27 | 3 | Win |
| 2016-10-02 | Chicago | Detroit | 4 | Home | 3.5 | 48.0 | 160 | 17-14 | 3 | Win |
| 2016-10-02 | Cleveland | Washington | 4 | Away | 7.0 | 48.0 | 280 | 20-31 | -11 | Loss |
| 2016-10-02 | New Orleans | San Diego | 4 | Away | 3.5 | 54.0 | 165 | 35-34 | 1 | Win |
| 2015-10-01 | Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 4 | Away | -3.0 | 44.0 | -150 | 23-20 | 3 | Push |
| 2015-10-04 | Chicago | Oakland | 4 | Home | 3.0 | 44.5 | 150 | 22-20 | 2 | Win |
| 2015-10-04 | New Orleans | Dallas | 4 | Home | -3.0 | 49.0 | -150 | 26-20 | 6 | Win |
| 2015-10-05 | Detroit | Seattle | 4 | Away | 10.0 | 43.0 | 400 | 10-13 | -3 | Win |
| 2014-09-28 | Oakland | Miami | 4 | Neutral | 4.0 | 41.0 | 170 | 14-38 | -24 | Loss |
| 2014-09-28 | Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh | 4 | Away | 7.0 | 44.5 | 285 | 27-24 | 3 | Win |
| 2014-09-28 | Jacksonville | San Diego | 4 | Away | 12.5 | 45.0 | 498 | 14-33 | -19 | Loss |
| 2013-09-29 | NY Giants | Kansas City | 4 | Away | 3.5 | 43.5 | 160 | 7-31 | -24 | Loss |
| 2013-09-29 | Tampa Bay | Arizona | 4 | Home | -2.5 | 40.0 | -134 | 10-13 | -3 | Loss |
| 2013-09-29 | Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 4 | Home | 9.5 | 42.5 | 330 | 3-37 | -34 | Loss |
| 2013-09-29 | Washington | Oakland | 4 | Away | -3.5 | 45.5 | -185 | 24-14 | 10 | Win |
| 2012-09-27 | Cleveland | Baltimore | 4 | Away | 11.0 | 43.5 | 465 | 16-23 | -7 | Win |
| 2012-09-30 | New Orleans | Green Bay | 4 | Away | 7.5 | 54.0 | 290 | 27-28 | -1 | Win |
| 2011-10-02 | St Louis | Washington | 4 | Home | 3.0 | 44.0 | 130 | 10-17 | -7 | Loss |
| 2011-10-02 | Miami | San Diego | 4 | Away | 6.5 | 45.0 | 260 | 16-26 | -10 | Loss |
| 2011-10-03 | Indianapolis | Tampa Bay | 4 | Away | 10.0 | 40.0 | 415 | 17-24 | -7 | Win |
| 2010-10-03 | San Francisco | Atlanta | 4 | Away | 7.0 | 42.5 | 250 | 14-16 | -2 | Win |
| 2010-10-03 | Buffalo | NY Jets | 4 | Home | 5.5 | 36.5 | 210 | 14-38 | -24 | Loss |
| 2010-10-03 | Cleveland | Cincinnati | 4 | Home | 2.5 | 36.5 | 115 | 23-20 | 3 | Win |
| 2010-10-03 | Detroit | Green Bay | 4 | Away | 14.5 | 46.0 | 800 | 26-28 | -2 | Win |
| 2010-10-03 | Carolina | New Orleans | 4 | Away | 12.5 | 43.5 | 550 | 14-16 | -2 | Win |
Which Teams Qualify for This Trend in 2025?
As we noted last week, backing a winless team against the spread is rarely comfortable. Most of these teams are 0–3 for a reason, and Week 4 makes the call even tougher as injuries accumulate, pricing tightens, and opponents have at least one convincing result on the board.
-
Saints +15.5 at Bills
-
New York Giants +6.5 vs. LA Chargers
The Saints meet the road ATS split that is 72.4%.
Why This Might Be Happening
Two forces likely drive the edge.
- Market perception. Records get overweighted by both bettors and models that incorporate prior outcomes. A winless record after three games can inflate spreads in ways that are not fully justified by true strength.
- Urgency and planning. Similar to what we noted with the Week 3 trend, teams that start poorly often lean into sharper game plans, higher leverage decisions, and tighter rotations. The difference between 0–3 and 0–4 is massive, and that urgency can translate to performance relative to expectation.
How To Use This Trend
Trends are a starting point, not a blind system. Do not auto-bet every winless team.
- Price check. If the line moved heavily against the winless side, ask whether injuries or a matchup change actually justify that move.
- Respect the road data. The road split has been excellent. That does not mean all road spots are buys, but it is a hint that the market sometimes overshoots when a winless team goes on the road.
- Confirm with fundamentals. Quarterback pressure rates, finishing drives, special teams, and coaching edges still decide outcomes. Let the trend nudge your short list, then make a football case.
Notes on Methodology
- Sample includes Week 4 only, winless teams versus opponents with at least one win.
- Pushes are reported explicitly. Win percentages listed above exclude pushes unless noted.
- Lines reflect closing spreads gathered via the BetIQ Custom Trends Tool.
Bottom Line
For more than a decade, the market has leaned too far against winless teams in Week 4. That does not make every winless side a value play, but it should raise your antenna when the price looks inflated.
Start with the trend, pressure test it with matchup and injury context, and let the numbers guide you to the best of these spots.