NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAR EKY
Points 71.4 67.1
Total Points   138.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 18.3
Points From Free Throws 16.7 12.0
Shooting CHAR EKY
Field Goals Made 24.2 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 60.0
Field Goal % 42.5% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 44.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 16.7 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 17.3
Free Throw % 75.2% 69.3%
Ball Control CHAR EKY
Rebounds 35.9 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 12.0
Turnovers 7.4 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.8
Steals 4.9 4.3
Fouls 12.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAR EKY
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 70.8
% of Possessions with CHAR EKY
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 23.0%
Player Fouled 22.3% 19.1%
Turnover 11.0% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAR EKY
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 31.2%