NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT USU
Points 59.0 85.9
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 49.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 20.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 16.1
Shooting NCAT USU
Field Goals Made 20.5 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 57.9
Field Goal % 34.7% 54.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 39.8% 64.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 24.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.3 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 22.2
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.5%
Ball Control NCAT USU
Rebounds 28.1 43.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 33.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.6
Turnovers 8.6 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.5
Steals 4.6 5.1
Fouls 15.0 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT USU
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 71.7
% of Possessions with NCAT USU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 24.2%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.2%
Turnover 12.2% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT USU
Shot Blocked 7.9% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 31.8%