NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU GRC
Points 59.4 78.8
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 29.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 23.5
Points From Free Throws 12.7 26.1
Shooting NMSU GRC
Field Goals Made 20.6 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 52.3
Field Goal % 35.7% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 28.9
2 Point Shooting % 38.8% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 12.7 26.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 34.4
Free Throw % 65.5% 76.0%
Ball Control NMSU GRC
Rebounds 32.8 42.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.8
Turnovers 11.4 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.0
Steals 4.7 7.5
Fouls 20.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Grd Canyon

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU GRC
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 73.4
% of Possessions with NMSU GRC
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 34.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 27.9%
Player Fouled 20.8% 29.1%
Turnover 16.1% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU GRC
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 33.9%