NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT MORG
Points 71.9 72.9
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 48.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 11.5
Points From Free Throws 18.6 12.7
Shooting NCAT MORG
Field Goals Made 24.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 61.4
Field Goal % 41.4% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 24.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 47.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 3.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 14.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 26.6%
Free Throws Made 18.6 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 16.9
Free Throw % 70.8% 75.2%
Ball Control NCAT MORG
Rebounds 34.9 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.8
Turnovers 8.9 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 5.9 4.4
Fouls 12.0 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT MORG
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 72.0
% of Possessions with NCAT MORG
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 55.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 17.1%
Player Fouled 23.8% 16.6%
Turnover 12.4% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT MORG
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 30.6%