NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU SCU
Points 63.3 78.6
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 26.5
Points From Free Throws 13.9 17.5
Shooting NMSU SCU
Field Goals Made 21.9 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 57.2
Field Goal % 37.7% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 26.8% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 13.9 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 25.2
Free Throw % 65.5% 69.6%
Ball Control NMSU SCU
Rebounds 31.9 44.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 12.5
Turnovers 8.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.4
Steals 5.3 4.5
Fouls 18.6 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU SCU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 73.3
% of Possessions with NMSU SCU
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 37.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 30.3%
Player Fouled 21.9% 26.4%
Turnover 12.0% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU SCU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 35.1%