NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT CHSO
Points 63.2 68.3
Total Points   131.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 12.2 21.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 10.9
Shooting NCAT CHSO
Field Goals Made 22.5 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 59.9
Field Goal % 38.1% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 23.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.2 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 15.7
Free Throw % 70.8% 69.7%
Ball Control NCAT CHSO
Rebounds 35.0 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 11.0
Turnovers 6.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.0
Steals 4.9 2.9
Fouls 11.8 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Charl South

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT CHSO
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 69.9
% of Possessions with NCAT CHSO
2 Point Attempt 53.2% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 27.0%
Player Fouled 21.3% 17.2%
Turnover 9.7% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT CHSO
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 29.6%