NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU FRES
Points 80.7 66.2
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 14.5 10.9
Shooting USU FRES
Field Goals Made 29.7 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 56.9
Field Goal % 51.8% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 60.5% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 14.5 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 15.6
Free Throw % 72.5% 69.6%
Ball Control USU FRES
Rebounds 36.6 29.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 6.8
Turnovers 8.7 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.0 1.5
Steals 5.6 5.2
Fouls 13.9 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU FRES
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 65.6
% of Possessions with USU FRES
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 26.9%
Player Fouled 22.1% 19.9%
Turnover 12.5% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU FRES
Shot Blocked 2.6% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 19.8%