NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT WCU
Points 61.0 79.9
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 12.3 25.0
Points From Free Throws 15.3 11.1
Shooting NCAT WCU
Field Goals Made 20.8 30.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 63.0
Field Goal % 36.1% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 40.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.5% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 26.9% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 15.3 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 15.8
Free Throw % 70.8% 70.0%
Ball Control NCAT WCU
Rebounds 30.7 44.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 32.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 11.9
Turnovers 6.5 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.0
Steals 4.1 2.9
Fouls 12.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT WCU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 72.9
% of Possessions with NCAT WCU
2 Point Attempt 54.4% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 19.6% 26.9%
Player Fouled 22.8% 17.5%
Turnover 9.4% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT WCU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.0% 33.7%