NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT NICH
Points 67.2 76.7
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 25.7
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.1
Shooting NCAT NICH
Field Goals Made 22.3 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 58.2
Field Goal % 39.1% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 26.7% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 19.5
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.4%
Ball Control NCAT NICH
Rebounds 33.2 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.8
Turnovers 8.3 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.7
Steals 5.6 5.1
Fouls 13.3 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT NICH
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 70.1
% of Possessions with NCAT NICH
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 27.4%
Player Fouled 23.7% 18.9%
Turnover 11.8% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT NICH
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 28.8%