NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD NICH
Points 74.8 65.8
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 20.4
Points From Free Throws 18.7 16.2
Shooting UCD NICH
Field Goals Made 24.8 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 52.3
Field Goal % 45.8% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.7% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 18.7 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 22.4
Free Throw % 76.1% 72.4%
Ball Control UCD NICH
Rebounds 35.1 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.4
Turnovers 11.6 13.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.0
Steals 8.1 6.9
Fouls 16.8 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD NICH
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 66.0
% of Possessions with UCD NICH
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 23.6%
Player Fouled 25.4% 23.5%
Turnover 16.2% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD NICH
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 24.7%