NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU BYU
Points 74.4 78.5
Total Points   152.8
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 29.0
Points From Free Throws 16.4 12.0
Shooting USU BYU
Field Goals Made 26.1 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 63.9
Field Goal % 46.4% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 16.6
Free Throw % 72.5% 72.5%
Ball Control USU BYU
Rebounds 34.2 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 10.3
Turnovers 9.2 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.1
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 13.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU BYU
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 74.1
% of Possessions with USU BYU
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 36.4%
Player Fouled 24.4% 18.8%
Turnover 12.7% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU BYU
Shot Blocked 3.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 27.2%