NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT ILL
Points 59.3 95.3
Total Points   154.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 50.3
Points From 3-Pointers 13.3 26.7
Points From Free Throws 12.1 18.3
Shooting NCAT ILL
Field Goals Made 21.4 34.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 62.1
Field Goal % 34.4% 54.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 25.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.0 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 36.9% 65.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 12.1 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 24.7
Free Throw % 70.8% 73.9%
Ball Control NCAT ILL
Rebounds 25.5 49.4
Rebounds - Defensive 17.7 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 14.2
Turnovers 6.9 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.2
Steals 3.9 3.7
Fouls 15.0 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT ILL
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 77.6
% of Possessions with NCAT ILL
2 Point Attempt 57.4% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 27.5%
Player Fouled 18.1% 21.3%
Turnover 9.8% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT ILL
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 18.1% 44.5%