NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU LIB
Points 62.2 69.0
Total Points   131.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 28.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 28.3
Points From Free Throws 11.3 12.0
Shooting NMSU LIB
Field Goals Made 22.8 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 52.5
Field Goal % 38.2% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 24.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 59.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 28.3
3 Point Shooting % 26.5% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 11.3 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 18.5
Free Throw % 69.0% 65.1%
Ball Control NMSU LIB
Rebounds 39.2 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 5.4
Turnovers 8.6 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.8
Steals 5.1 4.6
Fouls 15.1 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU LIB
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 63.5
% of Possessions with NMSU LIB
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 39.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 22.8%
Turnover 12.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU LIB
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 16.7%