NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD UCSB
Points 72.6 66.7
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 13.6
Points From Free Throws 15.3 17.0
Shooting UCD UCSB
Field Goals Made 25.4 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 49.5
Field Goal % 45.4% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 14.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 15.3 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 22.7
Free Throw % 76.1% 75.0%
Ball Control UCD UCSB
Rebounds 30.7 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 7.3
Turnovers 10.2 14.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.3
Steals 7.9 5.4
Fouls 17.4 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD UCSB
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 63.5
% of Possessions with UCD UCSB
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 17.9%
Player Fouled 23.4% 24.7%
Turnover 14.4% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD UCSB
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 24.4%