NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD UCSB
Points 75.1 79.9
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 27.0
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.3
Shooting UCD UCSB
Field Goals Made 23.7 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 49.5 54.1
Field Goal % 47.9% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 28.7 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 22.5
Free Throw % 76.5% 77.0%
Ball Control UCD UCSB
Rebounds 26.5 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 10.1
Turnovers 11.9 12.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.1
Steals 6.5 6.3
Fouls 16.7 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD UCSB
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 68.6
% of Possessions with UCD UCSB
2 Point Attempt 36.8% 37.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 28.7%
Player Fouled 27.5% 23.5%
Turnover 16.8% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD UCSB
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 33.1%