NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD UCSB
Points 62.8 69.5
Total Points   132.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 26.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 28.1
Points From Free Throws 15.3 14.5
Shooting UCD UCSB
Field Goals Made 21.2 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 52.8
Field Goal % 39.1% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 15.3 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.8
Free Throw % 75.3% 77.5%
Ball Control UCD UCSB
Rebounds 32.5 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.1
Turnovers 11.1 13.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.5
Steals 6.2 5.6
Fouls 16.1 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD UCSB
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 64.8
% of Possessions with UCD UCSB
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 29.6%
Player Fouled 24.3% 23.4%
Turnover 16.1% 18.9%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD UCSB
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 28.1%