NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT LONG
Points 65.0 76.9
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 18.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 14.1
Shooting NCAT LONG
Field Goals Made 22.4 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 60.0
Field Goal % 41.5% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.3 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 20.6
Free Throw % 70.8% 68.6%
Ball Control NCAT LONG
Rebounds 28.0 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 14.3
Turnovers 9.8 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.4
Steals 5.1 5.3
Fouls 14.2 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Longwood

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT LONG
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 73.4
% of Possessions with NCAT LONG
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 20.2%
Player Fouled 23.4% 20.6%
Turnover 14.2% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT LONG
Shot Blocked 4.0% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 40.4%