NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TAM TEX
Points 74.1 75.2
Total Points   149.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 25.4
Points From Free Throws 21.0 16.1
Shooting TAM TEX
Field Goals Made 23.1 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 57.4
Field Goal % 39.2% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 21.0 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 30.5 21.3
Free Throw % 68.8% 75.8%
Ball Control TAM TEX
Rebounds 41.4 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 15.6 9.0
Turnovers 9.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 6.2
Steals 5.7 6.0
Fouls 16.6 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TAM TEX
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 77.2 70.2
% of Possessions with TAM TEX
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 28.8%
Player Fouled 25.9% 23.2%
Turnover 13.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TAM TEX
Shot Blocked 10.9% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 38.2% 25.9%