NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU UTEP
Points 64.0 69.5
Total Points   133.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 31.7
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 17.8
Points From Free Throws 15.4 20.1
Shooting NMSU UTEP
Field Goals Made 21.9 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 49.4 51.8
Field Goal % 44.4% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 15.4 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 29.6
Free Throw % 65.5% 68.0%
Ball Control NMSU UTEP
Rebounds 34.0 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.4
Turnovers 15.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.0
Steals 5.9 10.5
Fouls 19.7 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU UTEP
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 70.1
% of Possessions with NMSU UTEP
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 22.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 27.6%
Turnover 21.7% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 14.7% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU UTEP
Shot Blocked 3.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 29.2%