NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD CP
Points 71.8 58.2
Total Points   130.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 15.7
Points From Free Throws 18.9 13.3
Shooting UCD CP
Field Goals Made 23.8 19.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.3 51.7
Field Goal % 45.5% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 18.9 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 18.8
Free Throw % 76.1% 70.9%
Ball Control UCD CP
Rebounds 37.0 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 13.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.0
Steals 7.6 5.4
Fouls 16.8 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD CP
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 63.4
% of Possessions with UCD CP
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 21.3%
Player Fouled 25.6% 24.3%
Turnover 17.0% 20.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD CP
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 23.1%