NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU DEN
Points 75.2 76.4
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.0 28.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 29.1
Points From Free Throws 13.7 18.8
Shooting NMSU DEN
Field Goals Made 27.5 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 57.3
Field Goal % 45.2% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 28.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 13.7 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 26.6
Free Throw % 65.5% 70.7%
Ball Control NMSU DEN
Rebounds 38.3 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.4
Turnovers 8.7 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.9
Steals 4.4 5.5
Fouls 18.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU DEN
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 73.0
% of Possessions with NMSU DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 34.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 34.2%
Player Fouled 20.6% 25.8%
Turnover 12.1% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU DEN
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 24.9%