NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD L-IL
Points 63.5 67.9
Total Points   131.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 20.3
Points From Free Throws 16.9 15.0
Shooting UCD L-IL
Field Goals Made 20.5 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 52.4
Field Goal % 39.2% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 16.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 22.1
Free Throw % 76.1% 67.6%
Ball Control UCD L-IL
Rebounds 32.4 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.8
Turnovers 13.4 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.7
Steals 7.4 7.7
Fouls 17.7 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD L-IL
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 66.0
% of Possessions with UCD L-IL
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 24.8%
Player Fouled 26.7% 25.0%
Turnover 18.9% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD L-IL
Shot Blocked 9.1% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 26.5%