NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU CSU
Points 70.5 71.5
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 18.5
Points From Free Throws 16.1 13.2
Shooting USU CSU
Field Goals Made 24.6 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 56.3
Field Goal % 45.0% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 16.1 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 17.7
Free Throw % 72.5% 74.7%
Ball Control USU CSU
Rebounds 34.4 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 6.7
Turnovers 9.4 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.0
Steals 5.0 5.1
Fouls 15.5 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU CSU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 66.7
% of Possessions with USU CSU
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 26.9%
Player Fouled 24.1% 22.4%
Turnover 13.5% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU CSU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 20.4%