NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TAM ARK
Points 81.0 78.1
Total Points   159.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 20.6
Points From Free Throws 23.3 18.6
Shooting TAM ARK
Field Goals Made 25.6 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 55.5
Field Goal % 39.3% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 23.3 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 32.7 24.3
Free Throw % 71.3% 76.5%
Ball Control TAM ARK
Rebounds 42.9 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 17.4 6.9
Turnovers 7.3 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.2
Steals 6.2 3.7
Fouls 18.9 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TAM ARK
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 84.3 70.0
% of Possessions with TAM ARK
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 26.3%
Player Fouled 25.6% 25.5%
Turnover 9.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TAM ARK
Shot Blocked 11.3% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 39.1% 21.2%