NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USU UNLV
Points 73.6 70.5
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 17.0
Points From Free Throws 15.4 14.2
Shooting USU UNLV
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 57.2
Field Goal % 46.5% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 15.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 19.4
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.0%
Ball Control USU UNLV
Rebounds 35.3 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.6
Turnovers 9.9 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.8
Steals 5.6 5.0
Fouls 14.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USU UNLV
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 68.6
% of Possessions with USU UNLV
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 23.1%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.3%
Turnover 14.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USU UNLV
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 24.9%