NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD ARST
Points 74.0 73.4
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.7 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 23.3
Points From Free Throws 16.2 15.3
Shooting UCD ARST
Field Goals Made 26.0 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 59.7
Field Goal % 45.6% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 16.2 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 21.7
Free Throw % 76.1% 70.2%
Ball Control UCD ARST
Rebounds 33.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.9
Turnovers 10.3 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.1
Steals 6.7 5.5
Fouls 15.2 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD ARST
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 73.2
% of Possessions with UCD ARST
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 27.7%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.4%
Turnover 14.4% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD ARST
Shot Blocked 7.0% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 34.1%