NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT UNCW
Points 63.1 81.9
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 15.2
Shooting NCAT UNCW
Field Goals Made 21.9 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 60.4
Field Goal % 39.5% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.0 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 19.6
Free Throw % 70.8% 77.5%
Ball Control NCAT UNCW
Rebounds 29.9 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 11.8
Turnovers 8.6 7.0
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.6
Steals 3.2 4.6
Fouls 13.8 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT UNCW
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 72.5
% of Possessions with NCAT UNCW
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.5% 20.4%
Turnover 12.7% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 4.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 35.4%