NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT UNCG
Points 61.7 80.1
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.0 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 33.6
Points From Free Throws 16.1 10.8
Shooting NCAT UNCG
Field Goals Made 19.9 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 60.8
Field Goal % 36.9% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.0% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 27.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 16.1 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 14.8
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.8%
Ball Control NCAT UNCG
Rebounds 30.3 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 11.9
Turnovers 8.8 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.0
Steals 4.7 5.3
Fouls 12.5 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT UNCG
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 70.5
% of Possessions with NCAT UNCG
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 34.4%
Player Fouled 23.6% 18.3%
Turnover 12.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 35.0%