NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NMSU TST
Points 65.6 75.5
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 21.8
Points From Free Throws 11.8 17.9
Shooting NMSU TST
Field Goals Made 23.9 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 57.6
Field Goal % 41.4% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.8 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 23.6
Free Throw % 65.5% 75.8%
Ball Control NMSU TST
Rebounds 35.8 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.3
Turnovers 11.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.0
Steals 4.2 7.6
Fouls 17.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NMSU TST
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 71.8
% of Possessions with NMSU TST
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 26.7%
Player Fouled 20.3% 24.5%
Turnover 15.9% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NMSU TST
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 29.1%