NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD USD
Points 72.6 65.9
Total Points   138.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 17.4
Points From Free Throws 19.5 15.7
Shooting UCD USD
Field Goals Made 23.3 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 53.4
Field Goal % 44.3% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.9 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 19.5 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 21.9
Free Throw % 76.1% 72.1%
Ball Control UCD USD
Rebounds 34.3 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.5
Turnovers 13.5 14.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.5
Steals 8.7 7.7
Fouls 16.4 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD USD
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 67.3
% of Possessions with UCD USD
2 Point Attempt 38.3% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 20.9%
Player Fouled 25.6% 22.6%
Turnover 18.6% 20.5%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 12.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD USD
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 27.6%