NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI NMSU
Points 78.2 63.6
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 17.2
Points From Free Throws 19.8 13.0
Shooting UCI NMSU
Field Goals Made 26.2 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 57.4
Field Goal % 46.5% 39.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 42.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 19.8 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 19.9
Free Throw % 75.7% 65.5%
Ball Control UCI NMSU
Rebounds 40.4 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.9
Turnovers 9.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.1
Steals 5.7 4.5
Fouls 15.3 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI NMSU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 69.6
% of Possessions with UCI NMSU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 22.0%
Player Fouled 26.2% 21.6%
Turnover 12.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI NMSU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 22.8%