NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI SDAK
Points 88.4 70.3
Total Points   158.7
Points From 2-Pointers 54.6 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 21.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.0
Shooting UCI SDAK
Field Goals Made 33.6 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.0 57.1
Field Goal % 51.7% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 27.3 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 47.9 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 40.0%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 18.3
Free Throw % 75.7% 76.4%
Ball Control UCI SDAK
Rebounds 38.5 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.4
Turnovers 6.8 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.9 1.4
Steals 6.3 2.6
Fouls 15.9 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI SDAK
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 68.0
% of Possessions with UCI SDAK
2 Point Attempt 56.5% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 21.9%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.9%
Turnover 9.4% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 3.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI SDAK
Shot Blocked 2.5% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.8% 21.4%