NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCI USD
Points 80.0 69.0
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 19.0
Points From Free Throws 19.5 15.3
Shooting UCI USD
Field Goals Made 27.6 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 57.0
Field Goal % 47.9% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 43.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 19.5 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 21.3
Free Throw % 75.7% 72.1%
Ball Control UCI USD
Rebounds 38.4 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.9
Turnovers 11.5 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.3
Steals 6.8 6.0
Fouls 16.0 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCI USD
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 70.0
% of Possessions with UCI USD
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 20.3%
Player Fouled 24.4% 21.7%
Turnover 15.6% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCI USD
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 24.2%