NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GRC ASU
Points 73.1 65.5
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 17.6
Points From Free Throws 20.1 14.2
Shooting GRC ASU
Field Goals Made 22.8 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 57.7
Field Goal % 41.3% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 44.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 20.1 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 21.7
Free Throw % 76.0% 65.3%
Ball Control GRC ASU
Rebounds 41.9 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.9 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 8.4
Turnovers 12.6 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.7
Steals 6.4 7.0
Fouls 16.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GRC ASU
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 70.8
% of Possessions with GRC ASU
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 23.8%
Player Fouled 23.3% 22.3%
Turnover 17.3% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GRC ASU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 21.3%