NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU USU
Points 71.8 70.0
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 15.3 16.5
Shooting SDSU USU
Field Goals Made 25.2 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 55.0
Field Goal % 42.7% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 15.3 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.7
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.5%
Ball Control SDSU USU
Rebounds 36.8 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 8.8
Turnovers 9.5 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.0
Steals 6.6 5.6
Fouls 17.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU USU
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 68.9
% of Possessions with SDSU USU
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 25.5%
Player Fouled 22.8% 24.3%
Turnover 13.5% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU USU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 25.2%