NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU FRES
Points 78.1 61.0
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.9 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 21.4
Points From Free Throws 14.2 11.4
Shooting SDSU FRES
Field Goals Made 28.1 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 54.1
Field Goal % 47.7% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 14.2 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 16.3
Free Throw % 73.7% 69.6%
Ball Control SDSU FRES
Rebounds 39.6 29.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 7.7
Turnovers 8.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.5 1.7
Steals 6.6 5.2
Fouls 14.5 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU FRES
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 63.4
% of Possessions with SDSU FRES
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 29.4%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.4%
Turnover 13.0% 18.1%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU FRES
Shot Blocked 3.2% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 21.9%