NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU ALA
Points 78.1 82.5
Total Points   160.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 30.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 34.7
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.4
Shooting SDSU ALA
Field Goals Made 26.0 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 62.2
Field Goal % 42.9% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 32.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 22.8
Free Throw % 73.7% 76.4%
Ball Control SDSU ALA
Rebounds 37.2 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 13.0
Turnovers 9.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.8
Steals 7.5 5.8
Fouls 17.7 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU ALA
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 76.6 76.2
% of Possessions with SDSU ALA
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 33.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 36.5%
Player Fouled 24.9% 23.9%
Turnover 13.2% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU ALA
Shot Blocked 6.2% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 34.1%